基于生存分析的航空发动机部附件可靠性研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 16:39

本文关键词：基于生存分析的航空发动机部附件可靠性研究　出处：《中国民航大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：发动机是民航飞机配装的重要动力装置。发动机部附件的可靠性与发动机的正常运行相关性极大,进而影响整架飞机的运行状况。对发动机部附件进行准确高效的可靠性参数估计,可以判断某个部附件的运行状态,据此进行相应的技术维护与支持工作,同时能够从整体上对该种部附件的可靠性趋势变化有更深入的理解,并为维修计划的制定提供重要技术依据。本文紧密依靠实际运行数据,结合生存分析的非参数数学方法,对航空公司发动机部附件寿命数据进行了整理、计算和分析。首先,在前人研究的基础上,以生存分析为框架,基于Kaplan-Meier乘积限估计、核密度估计等非参数方法,设计并提出了可靠性、失效密度和失效率三种参数的估计的算法;然后,对收集来的某公司发动机部附件的使用与维修记录进行整理,去除冗余、无效和逻辑错误的数据,筛选出典型部附件以备分析,并标明每条记录的状态为删失或寿终;接下来,运用三种参数的估计算法,对每种典型部附件进行计算,并结合维修与故障记录,详细分析了其可靠性变化趋势和原因;最后,使用MATLAB和C#语言开发了可供可靠性计算与分析的软件程序。分析结果表明,失效规律为早期失效型的部附件,其组成部分有特殊材料或者气动零件,如火花塞、高压引气活门;失效规律为耗损失效型的部附件,通常为液压相关部附件,如燃油计量装置、液压泵组件;失效规律为偶然失效型的部附件,一般含有电气和控制部分,如燃油计量装置、起动器。部附件可以同时具有多种失效规律。另外,各种部件的维修质量不尽相同,整体维修质量有待提高。计算与分析的结果表明,非参数可靠性估计算法能够准确描述部附件的可靠性变化情况,其适用性强、使用方便,能够为维修计划提供重要的技术支持。
[Abstract]:Engine is an important power device for civil aviation aircraft. The reliability of engine accessories is closely related to the normal operation of the engine. And then affect the operation of the whole aircraft. Accurate and efficient reliability parameter estimation of engine accessories can judge the running state of a certain part accessories, and then carry out the corresponding technical maintenance and support work. At the same time, we can have a deeper understanding of the reliability trend of this kind of accessories, and provide an important technical basis for the maintenance plan formulation. This paper closely depends on the actual operation data. Combined with the non-parametric mathematical method of survival analysis, the life data of aeronautical engine accessories are collated, calculated and analyzed. Firstly, based on the previous studies, survival analysis is taken as the framework. Based on the nonparametric methods such as Kaplan-Meier product limit estimation and kernel density estimation, the estimation algorithms of reliability, failure density and failure rate are designed and proposed. Then, the use and maintenance records of engine accessories collected from a company are sorted out to remove the data of redundancy, invalidation and logic errors, and the typical parts are screened for analysis. And to mark the state of each record as deleted or end-of-life; Then, using the estimation algorithm of three kinds of parameters, the paper calculates each typical part attachment, and analyzes its reliability change trend and reason in detail combined with maintenance and fault record. Finally, a software program for reliability calculation and analysis is developed by using MATLAB and C # language. The results show that the failure rule is an accessory of early failure type. Its components have special materials or pneumatic parts, such as spark plugs, high pressure exhaust valve; The failure rule is the part accessory of the wear and tear failure type, usually the hydraulic related parts accessories, such as fuel metering device, hydraulic pump assembly; Failure law is accidental failure type of parts accessories, generally containing electrical and control parts, such as fuel metering devices, starters, parts accessories can simultaneously have a variety of failure laws. The maintenance quality of various parts is different, and the overall maintenance quality needs to be improved. The results of calculation and analysis show that the non-parametric reliability estimation algorithm can accurately describe the reliability changes of the accessories, and its applicability is strong. Easy to use, can provide important technical support for maintenance plan.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V263.6

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