基于结构方程模型的遥感卫星地面站运行风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 16:56

本文选题：结构方程模型 + 验证性因子分析　；参考：《云南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：1975年我国第一颗返回式遥感卫星的发射,正式标致着我国航天遥感事业启航。特别是随着航天技术的快速发展,我国航天遥感事业从“十二五”进入快速发展阶段,多种载荷、多种类型的遥感卫星相继发射。这些新型卫星的发射,为我们在全国的资源调查、环境监测、灾害评估、城市规划等方面取得较大的成果。由于信息具备时间价值,因此遥感卫星地面站作为遥感数据接收的第一环,其是否正常运行,直接关系后续遥感数据价值的发掘。为确保如何用科学方法来客观有效地管理遥感卫星地面站的运行风险,从根源上有效规避风险的发生成为一个有必要研究的课题。然而针对具体风险管理模型实证研究时,传统的因子分析、回归分析、路径分析都有一定的适用范围与限度。而结构方程模型在具体应用中,能对多个潜变量和显变量、潜变量和潜变量的模型,揭示出各因素之间的相关关系,因此有必要将结构方程模型引入到遥感卫星地面站运行风险管理研究中。本文在对相关文献的分析基础上,首先以运行管理经验为基础,对地面站的运行风险界定和运行流程分析,并结合历史事故累积资料,对影响遥感卫星地面站运行风险进行了识别,找出影响运行的五大关键因素,构建了遥感卫星地面站运行风险评价指标体系；其次根据结构方程模型构建原则,构建遥感卫星地面站运行风险管理模型。并进一步引入实证,根据假设模型,设计调查问卷,收集、统计数据,从问卷数据的统计分析、信度、效度,几方面检验了问卷调查的科学性。最后利用问卷数据,引入到统计软件模型中,揭示出潜变量之间的直接路径系数和潜变量与其显变量之间的关系,根据实证我们提出相应的风险对策。该研究不仅为遥感卫星地面站防范风险提供思路,同时也能就管理者如何根据模型,改变管理思路,确保地面站全面合理建设和长久稳定运行提供新的指导思路,提供一定的科学指导意义。
[Abstract]:The launch of China's first recoverable remote sensing satellite in 1975 officially marked the launch of China's space remote sensing. Especially with the rapid development of spaceflight technology, the space remote sensing in our country has entered the stage of rapid development from the 12th Five-Year Plan, and many kinds of remote sensing satellites have been launched one after another with various payloads. The launch of these new satellites has made great achievements in resource investigation, environmental monitoring, disaster assessment, urban planning and so on. Because the information has time value, the earth station of remote sensing satellite as the first link of receiving remote sensing data, its normal operation, directly related to the value of subsequent remote sensing data mining. In order to ensure that how to manage the operational risk of remote sensing satellite earth station objectively and effectively by scientific method, it is necessary to study how to avoid the risk effectively from the source. However, the traditional factor analysis, regression analysis and path analysis have certain application scope and limitation in the empirical study of specific risk management model. In the concrete application of structural equation model, it can reveal the correlation between many latent variables and explicit variables, latent variables and latent variables. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the structural equation model into the research of remote sensing satellite earth station operation risk management. Based on the analysis of related literature, this paper firstly defines the operation risk and operation flow of earth station based on the experience of operation management, and combines the accumulated data of historical accidents. The operation risk of remote sensing satellite earth station is identified, five key factors are found out, and the evaluation index system of remote sensing satellite earth station operation risk is constructed. The operation risk management model of remote sensing satellite earth station is constructed. Furthermore, according to the hypothesis model, the author designs the questionnaire, collects the statistical data, and tests the scientific nature of the questionnaire from the statistical analysis, reliability, validity and several aspects of the questionnaire data. Finally, using the questionnaire data, the paper introduces the statistical software model to reveal the relationship between the direct path coefficient of latent variables and their explicit variables, and puts forward the corresponding risk countermeasures according to the empirical results. The research not only provides a way for remote sensing satellite earth station to guard against risks, but also provides a new guiding idea on how to change the management thought according to the model and ensure the comprehensive and reasonable construction and long-term stable operation of the earth station. To provide certain scientific guidance significance.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：V55

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