基于多属性决策的舰载机着舰风险评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 19:59

【摘要】：舰载机是海洋作战的重要武器,其安全着舰是整个作战链条中非常关键的环节之一,舰载机大约80%的事故是在着舰过程中发生的。由于着舰事故引起的损失和危害极大,研究者们对着舰方法和技术给予高度重视,不仅对舰载机引导控制系统和航空母舰甲板着舰装置不断地进行改进,也对舰载机着舰风险评估展开了深入的研究。为了提高着舰风险评估的准确性,本文依据舰载机着舰过程的自动引导和人工引导两种方式,改进了动态多属性决策方法和有偏好的多属性群决策方法,对多组航次着舰风险进行评估排序,实现飞行效能的综合评价。首先对舰载机受力情况和着舰运动状态进行分析,完成了舰载机运动模型和舰载机控制模型的搭建。考虑动态多属性决策方法在舰载机着舰风险评估中存在时间点不关联等不足,对动态多属性决策方法进行改进：通过可能度与排序公式得到期望排序值,综合期望和方差进行条件分析,实现方案的排序,解决了排序相同或相似的飞行航次难于分辨优劣的问题。分析有偏好多属性群决策应用在着舰风险评估中的原因,发现其目标优化模型存在局限性,对有偏好的多属性群决策方法进行改进：通过定义二维三角模糊数的期望值,建立目标优化模型,获取属性权重,实现系统数据与专家评估信息的统一,解决了未知属性权重的决策问题。在MATLAB仿真环境下,对舰载机着舰系统模型进行仿真,获取着舰过程中飞行信息和不同航次的落点分布。通过比较改进方法与传统方法的决策结果可知,改进的动态决策方法可以更好的评估出排序相同或相近的方案,而改进的有偏好群决策方法可以使属性权重更逼近标准属性权重,使排序结果更准确。仿真结果证明了改进方法的有效性和可行性。针对两种飞行情况进行了大量仿真实验,统计结果表明改进的动态多属性决策方法对同一驾驶员多航次飞行的情况更适用,并且针对相似类型的多属性决策问题也具有通用性。
[Abstract]:Shipborne aircraft is an important weapon in marine warfare, and its safe landing is one of the key links in the whole battle chain. About 80% of the accidents of shipborne aircraft occur in the course of landing ship. Because of the great loss and harm caused by the landing accident, researchers attach great importance to the method and technology of landing, not only to the guidance control system of the carrier aircraft and the carrier deck landing device, but also to improve continuously. The risk assessment of carrier aircraft landing is also studied in depth. In order to improve the accuracy of ship landing risk assessment, this paper improves the dynamic multi-attribute decision method and the preference multi-attribute group decision method according to the two ways of automatic guidance and manual guidance of shipboard landing process. The risk of multi-group ship landing is evaluated and sorted to realize the comprehensive evaluation of flight effectiveness. Firstly, the force and landing state of shipborne aircraft are analyzed, and the motion model and control model of shipborne aircraft are built. Considering the shortcomings of dynamic multi-attribute decision making method in ship landing risk assessment, the dynamic multi-attribute decision making method is improved: the expected ranking value is obtained by the possibility degree and ranking formula. Based on the conditional analysis of expectation and variance, the scheduling scheme is realized, which solves the problem that it is difficult to distinguish the merits and demerits of the same or similar flights. This paper analyzes the reasons for the application of preference multi-attribute group decision making in shipboard risk assessment, finds that its objective optimization model has limitations, and improves the method of multi-attribute group decision making with preference: by defining the expected value of two-dimensional triangular fuzzy number, The goal optimization model is established to obtain attribute weights and the system data and expert evaluation information are unified. The decision problem of unknown attribute weights is solved. In the MATLAB simulation environment, the ship landing system model of shipborne aircraft is simulated to obtain the flight information and the distribution of different landing points during the ship landing. By comparing the decision results of the improved method and the traditional method, it can be seen that the improved dynamic decision method can better evaluate the same or similar ranking schemes. The improved preference group decision making method can make the attribute weight more close to the standard attribute weight and make the ranking result more accurate. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the improved method. A large number of simulation experiments have been carried out for the two flight cases. The statistical results show that the improved dynamic multi-attribute decision making method is more suitable for the case of the same pilot's multi-voyage flight, and it is also universal for similar multi-attribute decision making problems.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：E926.392

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