石化行业人因可靠性分析及其在LOPA中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-08-19 06:13

【摘要】：人的不安全行为是导致石化企业事故发生的主要因素之一,随着过程工业安全评价的不断进步,越来越多的标准与风险分析指南强调了人因分析的重要性,提出了人因分析需求,因此对石化行业中的人因可靠性分析研究具有重要的意义。然而,目前我国人因可靠性分析在石化领域的应用并不常见,本文以LOPA思想为主线探讨了石化行业定量化人因分析的流程与模型,并将其成功应用于其它IPL的有效性计算。本文首先提出了LOPA中的人因分析需求,分析了石化行业作业特点,确定了人因可靠性影响因素并提出了人因失误根源分析模型,为减少人员失误提供了可用性较高的理论模型与科学依据。然后将操作员作业归为现场作业与中控室作业两大类,在充分考虑现有HRA模型优缺点的基础上确定了两类作业环节中人因分析的方法,并改进了CREAM基本法,将模糊理论引入基本法中;优化了HEART方法,明确了石化行业通用任务列表;完善了HCR方法,说明了基于AHP方法确定认知行为的过程,增加了其修正因子与修正系数,使三者更加适用于石化行业的人因可靠性定量化计算,同时也使计算结果更加精确。最后以火气系统的有效性计算作为应用案例,详细阐述了火气系统运行过程中的人员干预模式,将火气系统的整体有效性归结为三方面,提出了基于工艺安全时间效应的减缓系统有效性模型,继而得到了火气系统的整体有效性模型,计算了人员干预下的火气系统整体有效性。总之,本文对石化行业中的人因分析展开了初步探讨,为今后基于行业特色的人因分析奠定了基础,具有较强的实际工程意义。同时,本文提出的HRA优化思想,对其它行业领域也具有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Human unsafe behavior is one of the main factors leading to accidents in petrochemical enterprises. With the continuous progress of process industrial safety evaluation, more and more standards and risk analysis guidelines emphasize the importance of human factor analysis. The demand of human factor analysis is put forward, so it is of great significance to the research of human factor reliability analysis in petrochemical industry. However, at present, the application of human factor reliability analysis in petrochemical field is not common in China. This paper discusses the process and model of quantitative human factor analysis in petrochemical industry based on LOPA thought, and successfully applies it to other IPL validity calculation. This paper first puts forward the demand of human factor analysis in LOPA, analyzes the characteristics of petrochemical industry operation, determines the factors affecting human factor reliability, and puts forward the root cause analysis model of human factor error. It provides a theoretical model and scientific basis for reducing human error. Then the operator operations are classified into two categories: field operation and central control room operation. On the basis of fully considering the advantages and disadvantages of the existing HRA model, the methods of human factor analysis in the two types of operations are determined, and the basic law of CREAM is improved. The fuzzy theory is introduced into the basic law, the HEART method is optimized, the general task list of petrochemical industry is defined, the HCR method is perfected, the process of determining cognitive behavior based on AHP method is explained, and the correction factor and correction coefficient are increased. It makes them more suitable for the quantitative calculation of human reliability in petrochemical industry, and also makes the calculation results more accurate. Finally, taking the effectiveness calculation of the fire gas system as an application case, the personnel intervention mode in the operation process of the fire gas system is elaborated in detail, and the overall effectiveness of the fire gas system is reduced to three aspects. A model of mitigation system effectiveness based on process safety time effect is proposed, and then the overall effectiveness model of fire gas system is obtained, and the overall effectiveness of fire gas system under personnel intervention is calculated. In a word, this paper has a preliminary discussion on the human factor analysis in petrochemical industry, which lays a foundation for the human factor analysis based on the characteristics of the industry in the future, and has strong practical engineering significance. At the same time, the idea of HRA optimization proposed in this paper also has some reference significance for other industries.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE65;TQ086

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