美欧中

发布时间：2017-12-27 10:11

  本文关键词：美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估　出处：《中国环境科学》2016年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 气候公平 累积碳排放 国家自主贡献 减排力度和公平性

【摘要】：基于气候公平的不同原则,采用动态的衡量指标,建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架,计算了基数、平等、能力、责任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累积碳排放配额的地区分布,并评估了美欧中印"国家自主贡献(Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,INDC)"目标的力度,提出了各国减排目标力度应当增加的程度.结果表明:美欧中印总体的INDC力度离实现2℃目标仍有差距,不同方案下的排放差距为8.0~9.6Gt CO2,超出2030年2℃目标下全球排放的比例为20%~24%.在各自最为有利的方案下,中印能满足实现2℃目标的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美欧距离实现2℃目标的公平分配要求均有差距,需要进一步提高力度.公平指标的动态和静态衡量方法,以及历史责任计量起始年的选取,对公平分配的结果影响很大.
[Abstract]:Based on different principles of climate justice, using dynamic indicators, the establishment of a comprehensive framework for equitable distribution of future emissions of space, area distribution base, equality, ability, responsibility and mixed scheme 2010~2100 global cumulative carbon emissions quotas were calculated and assessed and India "national independent contribution (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC)," efforts, proposed national emission reduction targets should increase the degree of intensity. The results show that: the United States and Europe India overall INDC efforts to achieve 2 degrees from the target is still a gap between the different scenarios for 8.0~9.6Gt CO2 emissions gap, the proportion of global emissions in 2030 exceeded 2 degrees under the target for 20%~24%. in their most favorable under the program, the lower limit of India can satisfy the realization of fair allocation scheme at 2 target requirements. And in all scenarios and achieve the goal of fair distance at 2 points There is a gap between the allocation requirements and the need for further improvement. The dynamic and static measurement methods of fairness indicators and the selection of the beginning date of historical responsibility measurement have great influence on the results of fair distribution.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学环境学院;国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心;
【基金】：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“主要缔约方2015协议下国家自主贡献的公平性和力度评估”(2014094)
【分类号】：X321
【正文快照】： 2015年12月通过的《巴黎协定》进一步明确了将全球温升控制在不超过工业化前2℃这一长期目标[1].近年来科学研究已经确定累积碳排放是造成全球温升的主要原因,并建立了两者之间的近似线性关系[2-4].因此在2℃目标下,未来全球碳排放空间将受到严格限制.考虑到政治可行性,《巴黎，

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