中国工业结构调整的碳排放效应预测——基于动态多目标优化模型

发布时间：2017-12-28 00:04

本文关键词：中国工业结构调整的碳排放效应预测——基于动态多目标优化模型　出处：《技术经济与管理研究》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章根据低碳经济发展目标对工业行业进行重新归类,并基于动态多目标优化模型,预测未来5年中国工业结构调整的碳排放效应,力图为相关政策的制定提供理论参考。研究结果表明:通过工业结构调整来协调"降碳、增长与就业"之间的关系,在一定程度上发挥降碳效应;第Ⅰ、Ⅳ类工业行业短期内可大幅缩减其所占比重,但长期来看,其降碳效果有限,节能技术的开发、创新和应用才是关键所在;非金属矿物制品业、化学原料及化学制品制造业都属于高碳行业,但两者的发展分别对经济增长和扩大就业有突出的贡献,因而适度的规模扩张仍是其短期内的必然选择;此外,第Ⅶ、Ⅷ类工业行业在节能减排方面的优势不再那么凸显,其扩张趋势会逐渐放缓。
[Abstract]:Based on the goal of low carbon economy, the paper reclassifies industrial sectors. Based on dynamic multi-objective optimization model, it forecasts the carbon emission effect of China's industrial structure adjustment in the next 5 years, and tries to provide a theoretical reference for the formulation of relevant policies. The results show that: the relationship between the adjustment of industrial structure to coordinate the "carbon reduction, growth and employment", play effect of carbon reduction to a certain extent; Part I and IV industries in the short term can significantly reduce the proportion, but in the long term, the carbon reduction effect is limited, energy saving technology development, innovation and application is the key; non-metallic mineral products, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry belongs to the high carbon industry, but the development of economic growth and the expansion of outstanding contribution to employment, and moderate expansion is still the inevitable choice in the short term; in addition, no longer so highlight the advantages of the seventh class VIII, industry in terms of energy saving, its expansion trend will gradually slow down.
【作者单位】：徐州工程学院管理学院;
【基金】：住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目(2014-R4-015) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金指导项目(2015SJD473) 江苏省建设系统科技项目(2014ZD45) 江苏省“青蓝工程”资助项目江苏省高校优秀中青年教师和校长境外研修计划资助项目
【分类号】：X322;F424.0
【正文快照】： 一、引言根据国家统计局发布的数据,2014年中国能源消耗总量达到36.2亿吨标准煤,碳排放量约90亿吨,占全球总量的29%,节能减排的形势异常严峻。早在1991年,GrossmanKrueger[1]曾指出经济增长影响环境的三种可能渠道,即规模效应、技术效应与结构效应。为考察这种结构效应,Debab

【相似文献】