基于LMDI分解模型的中国居民生活间接碳排放特征分析

发布时间：2017-12-28 00:22

本文关键词：基于LMDI分解模型的中国居民生活间接碳排放特征分析　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年S2期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪,温室气体排放引发的全球变暖等问题成为世界关注的焦点,长期以来我国控制碳排放的政策手段多集中于工业生产领域,对居民生活领域碳排放控制涉及较少。基于此,本文使用LMDI模型计算并分析了2000-2015年间我国居民生活间接碳排放的驱动因素,结果显示:(1)城乡居民人均生活间接碳排放驱动因素中,消费碳排放强度因素、消费水平因素、经济水平因素具有同向的碳排放驱动效应,消费结构因素、城乡消费比重因素、城乡结构因素具有反向的碳排放驱动效应;(2)经济水平的提高是城乡居民生活间接碳排放的主要推动力,考虑到与碳排放强度相关的技术趋于稳定,短期内难以取得突破,因此居民人均生活间接碳排放量及总生活碳排放量的上升趋势难以逆转;(3)从生活消费特点上对比,城镇居民相比农村居民有更有利于碳减排的生活消费结构,这一点由消费结构因素、城乡结构因素的对比得以印证,但从绝对值上看,城镇居民人均生活间接碳排放值仍显著大于农村居民,因此城镇化进程将显著推动全国居民生活碳排放量的上升。本文研究可为精细化控制居民生活碳排放的政策制定与实施提供科学参考。
[Abstract]:Entering the twenty-first Century, global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become the focus of world attention. For a long time, China's policy measures to control carbon emissions are mostly concentrated in the industrial production area, and the control of carbon emissions in residential areas is less. Based on this, this paper uses LMDI model to calculate and analyze the driving factors, 2000-2015 years of life of our residents indirect carbon emission results showed that: (1) urban and rural residents per capita indirect driving factors of carbon emissions, consumption of carbon emission intensity factors, consumption level factors, economic level has the same carbon emission driving effect, consumption the structure factors, the proportion of urban and rural consumption factors, urban and rural structure factors with reverse carbon emissions driving effect; (2) the improvement of the economic level is the main driving force of urban and rural residents indirect carbon emissions, taking into account the stable and carbon emission intensity related technology, the short term is difficult to achieve a breakthrough, so the rising trend of residents per capita indirect carbon emissions the amount of total carbon emissions and life difficult to reverse; (3) comparison from the consumption characteristics of urban residents, rural residents have more favorable compared to carbon emission reduction of life The consumption structure, the consumption structure of urban and rural factors, structural factors can be confirmed, but from the absolute point of view, urban residents per capita indirect carbon emission value is still significantly higher than rural residents, thus rising urbanization will significantly promote the household carbon emissions. This study can provide a scientific reference for the policy formulation and implementation of the fine control of household carbon emissions.
【作者单位】：中央民族大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“以公共价值为基础的沙漠化治理政策绩效评价与校验”(批准号:41371529),“制度因素对沙漠化影响的定量分析”(批准号:41071353)
【分类号】：X24
【正文快照】： 进入21世纪,温室气体排放引发的全球变暖等问题成为世界关注的焦点。2015年,全球碳排放量达到321亿吨,过去十年中CO2排放量年均增长2.4%。我国连年的高速增长同样带来碳排放过量的问题,据世界能源统计年鉴报告,我国2006年已经超过美国成为世界第一大CO2排放国,排放量约占世界

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