基于地理加权回归模型的中国省域交通碳减排压力指数

发布时间：2018-01-01 12:06

本文关键词：基于地理加权回归模型的中国省域交通碳减排压力指数　出处：《中国公路学报》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为评价中国省域交通碳减排压力,提供差异化的交通碳减排政策依据,基于地理加权回归模型,确定且测算了2007年和2013年中国省级区域交通行业的规模效应、技术效应、结构效应三大驱动因子,并使用熵值法确定其权重,构建并计算各省交通碳减排压力指数,结合自然断点分级法,按区域划分碳减排压力指数。结果表明:中国省域交通碳减排驱动因子和压力指数存在空间异质性,碳减排压力指数由2007年的自北向南逐渐递减转变为2013年的自东北向华中、西南递减;在政策层面上,东北地区需重点调整经济增长方式、优化运输结构,以降低交通碳减排结构效应的正向驱动,华中地区需继续稳健地发展经济,降低由于规模效应带来的交通碳排放,而西北、西南地区则需要推进科技创新和技术优化,提升技术减排效应。
[Abstract]:For the evaluation of provincial traffic carbon emission reduction pressure Chinese, providing traffic carbon emission reduction policy on the basis of differentiation, geographically weighted regression model based on the determined and measured the scale effect, 2007 and 2013 China provincial transportation industry technical effect, structure effect of three major driving factors, and use the entropy method to determine the weight, build and calculate the the pressure of traffic carbon emission reduction index, combined with the natural breakpoint classification method based on regional carbon emission reduction pressure index. The results showed that the provincial transport carbon emissions Chinese driving factors and the pressure index of spatial heterogeneity, carbon emission reduction pressure index from 2007 from the north to the South gradually decreasing to decline from the northeast to the southwest of China, in 2013; the policy level, the Northeast should focus on the adjustment of the mode of economic growth, optimize the transport structure, in order to reduce the traffic carbon emission reduction effect of positive driving structure, central China needs to continue We must steadily develop the economy and reduce the traffic carbon emissions caused by scale effect, while the northwest and southwest regions need to promote technological innovation and technology optimization, and enhance the technology emission reduction effect.

【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;德克萨斯理工大学土木与环境工程系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51278057) 霍英东教育基金项目(151075) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310823151006,310823160103)
【分类号】：X73
【正文快照】： 2.德克萨斯理工大学土木与环境工程系,德克萨斯卢伯克TX 79409)0引言目前,中国已成为世界工业化发展最快、规模最大的新兴经济体。根据《中国生态足迹报告(2012)》,自20世纪70年代以来,碳足迹占到中国生态足迹的54%,在2009年哥本哈根气候大会上,中国承诺“到2020年,CO2排放相

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