北京市机动车限行政策对空气质量和公众健康的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 13:28

本文关键词：北京市机动车限行政策对空气质量和公众健康的影响研究　出处：《北京理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,伴随经济的发展,北京市的机动车保有量大幅增长,在给城市生活带来便捷的同时,交通拥堵和空气污染问题也日益凸显,机动车污染物排放已成为北京市空气污染的重要来源之一,直接威胁着公众健康。北京市于2008年奥运会期间开始尝试实施机动车尾号限行管理政策,以期缓解交通拥堵和改善空气质量,现在机动车按尾号限行已经成为北京市一项常规的交通管理政策。然而,围绕机动车限行管理政策的研究和讨论大多集中在交通出行或空气质量的单一方面,还缺乏对公众健康问题的关注。因此,结合北京市实际,探讨机动车限行政策的实施对空气质量和公众健康的影响具有较强的理论意义和实践价值。本文在阅读和分析大量相关文献的基础上,梳理总结了空气质量、公众健康的影响因素,确定了研究中的变量,包括空气质量指数、呼吸科门诊人数、急诊人数、气象因素(平均温度、相对湿度、平均风速)以及工作日等变量。基于流行病学的相关研究,本文确定选用广义相加模型作为研究的基本模型,并且考虑到北京季节特征明显,本文还在基本模型的基础上,添加了机动车限行政策和供暖季节的交互项形成交互模型,以探讨机动车限行政策的实行在供暖季节和非供暖季节是否有不同的影响效果。此外,本文还考察了滞后方式和滞后期的不同对基本模型和交互模型研究结果的影响。利用R软件完成了对模型的拟合及分析,形成本文的研究结论,然后基于研究结论针对北京市实施机动车限行政策提出几点建议,希望对北京市实施机动车限行管理政策提供一定的参考和借鉴,为首都空气质量的改善和公众健康水平的提升做出贡献。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of the economy, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has increased significantly, which brings convenience to urban life, traffic congestion and air pollution problems have become increasingly prominent. The emission of motor vehicle pollutants has become one of the important sources of air pollution in Beijing, which is a direct threat to public health. During the 2008 Olympic Games, Beijing began to try to implement the vehicle tail number limit management policy. In order to alleviate traffic congestion and improve air quality, it has become a routine traffic management policy in Beijing. Most of the research and discussion around the vehicle restriction management policy focus on the single aspect of traffic travel or air quality, and lack of attention to the public health problem. Therefore, combined with the actual situation in Beijing. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to discuss the effect of motor vehicle restriction policy on air quality and public health. Based on the reading and analysis of a large number of relevant documents, this paper summarizes the air quality. Factors affecting public health were identified as variables in the study, including air quality index, respiratory outpatient population, emergency population, and meteorological factors (mean temperature, relative humidity). Based on the relevant epidemiological studies, this paper selected the generalized additive model as the basic model of the study, and considered that the seasonal characteristics of Beijing are obvious. On the basis of the basic model, this paper adds the vehicle restriction policy and the interactive items of heating season to form an interactive model. In order to explore whether the implementation of motor vehicle restriction policy in heating season and non-heating season have different effects. In addition. The effects of lag mode and lag time on the research results of basic model and interactive model are also investigated. The model fitting and analysis are completed by using R software, and the conclusion of this paper is formed. Then based on the conclusions of the study on the implementation of motor vehicle restrictions in Beijing to put forward a few suggestions, hoping to provide certain reference and reference to the implementation of motor vehicle restriction management policy in Beijing. To contribute to the improvement of air quality and public health in the capital.
【学位授予单位】：北京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X734.2;X51

【参考文献】