港区船舶溢油风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 05:26

本文关键词：港区船舶溢油风险评价研究　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化的快速发展,世界各个国家之间的贸易往来越来越频繁,对石油能源及其相关产品的需求也急剧增加。海上石油运输在石油运输中占有至关重要的地位,为了满足石油运输量的迅速增加,伴随着航运业的快速发展,船舶数量的迅速增加,船舶大型化、快速化的不断发展,种种因素使船舶石油运输环境面临更加复杂的问题,导致船舶溢油事故风险也随之增大。海上溢油事故越来越多,严重危害了海洋生态和经济环境,成为海洋污染最为主要的来源之一。对于船舶发生溢油事故的事前评估显得尤为重要,预防船舶发生溢油事故的风险管理措施,以及发生溢油事故后的应急体系建立刻不容缓。本文利用风险评价理论及方法,在国内外船舶溢油事故调查的基础上,对港区船舶溢油事故的类型和风险特征进行分析和总结,考虑影响船舶溢油事故的风险因素,对风险源进行系统、全面的识别,根据风险指标体系的建立原则,建立溢油可能性风险指标体系和溢油危害后果指标体系。根据专家评分法确定风险指标的相对重要性,利用层次分析法计算指标的权重,为制定防范措施提供依据,再结合隶属度函数确定的评价标准,建立船舶溢油风险多层次模糊综合评价模型,最后计算出溢油风险等级并进行定性分析。利用概率和统计原理预测船舶溢油事故发生的可能性,最终得出溢油风险概率,并估算出溢油量。最后以大石化港区为例,计算该港区的溢油风险综合值,确定溢油风险等级,并估算出该港的溢油概率和溢油量。根据评价结果,提出溢油风险防范措施和风险管理建议,提高港区船舶突发溢油事故的管理能力和应急反应处理能力,保护港区周围海洋生态环境,促进海洋经济健康可持续发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economic integration, the trade between countries in the world is becoming more and more frequent. The demand for petroleum energy and related products is also increasing rapidly. Oil transportation by sea plays an important role in oil transportation. In order to meet the rapid increase of oil transportation volume, with the rapid development of shipping industry. With the rapid increase of the number of ships, the large and rapid development of ships, various factors make the environment of shipping oil transportation face more complex problems. As a result, the risk of oil spills from ships increases, and more and more oil spills occur at sea, which seriously harms the marine ecological and economic environment. As one of the most important sources of marine pollution, it is very important to evaluate the oil spill accident in advance, and the risk management measures to prevent the oil spill accident. It is urgent to establish the emergency system after the oil spill accident. This paper uses the risk assessment theory and method on the basis of the investigation of the oil spill accident at home and abroad. This paper analyzes and summarizes the types and risk characteristics of marine oil spill accidents in port area, considers the risk factors that affect the oil spill accidents, systematically and comprehensively identifies the risk sources, and establishes the principles of risk index system. The risk index system of oil spill possibility and the index system of oil spill hazard consequence were established. The relative importance of the risk index was determined by expert scoring method, and the weight of the index was calculated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In order to provide the basis for making preventive measures and combined with the evaluation criteria determined by membership function, the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of ship oil spill risk is established. Finally, the oil spill risk grade is calculated and analyzed qualitatively. The probability of oil spill accident is predicted by using the probability and statistics principle, and the probability of oil spill risk is finally obtained. Finally, taking the oil spill risk of the port area as an example, the comprehensive value of the oil spill risk in the port area is calculated, the grade of the oil spill risk is determined, and the oil spill probability and the oil spill amount of the port are estimated according to the evaluation results. The paper puts forward the preventive measures and risk management suggestions to improve the management ability and emergency response ability of ships in port area to protect the marine ecological environment around the port area. To promote the healthy and sustainable development of the marine economy.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X55;X82

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