中国地级城市碳减排目标实现时间测算

发布时间：2018-01-09 12:02

本文关键词：中国地级城市碳减排目标实现时间测算　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：应对气候变化联合声明使得中国城市碳减排工作日益重要。基于《城市温室气体核算国际标准》提供的方法,从各项能源消耗、工业产品生产、城市生活垃圾焚烧和城市绿地碳汇等四个方面测算了中国100个城市2002-2012年直接碳排放总量,根据城市的人均碳排放曲线将它们分成了高、中、低碳三类城市,分别包括10,36,54个城市。根据环境库兹涅茨曲线,针对不同的碳排放城市类型构建了2类碳排放与经济发展关系的经济计量模型。研究表明,中国城市碳排放轨迹遵循倒"U"型,但是各城市间的碳排放-经济模式存在巨大差异,包含至少五种:高-高碳城市呈现正"U"型发展轨迹,其余四类的发展模式都呈现倒"U"型,特别是中碳城市群;这四类发展模式存在不同的碳排放-经济发展曲线,存在不同的人均碳排放和碳排放总量的峰值;但是,低碳城市群碳排放与经济发展的倒U关系不是非常显著。利用该模型结果,基于各城市人均GDP发展速度,测算了各城市未来人均碳排放拐点和碳排放总量拐点的到达时间。测算结果表明,如果各城市仍然按照2012年前的碳排放-经济模式发展,那么仅有44%的城市能在2030年前顺利达峰。因此,达峰时间比较长的城市必须实施低碳发展战略,当中高碳城市类的人均碳排放峰值下降10%或者低碳城市类下降20%时,基本在2030年达峰。
[Abstract]:The Joint Declaration on Climate change has made it increasingly important to reduce carbon emissions in China's cities. Based on the methods provided by the International Standards for the Accounting of Urban greenhouse gases, energy consumption and the production of industrial products are discussed. The total direct carbon emissions of 100 cities in China from 2002 to 2012 were measured from four aspects, including municipal solid waste incineration and urban green carbon sink, which were divided into high levels according to the per capita carbon emission curve of cities. Middle and low carbon three types of cities, including 10, 36, 54 cities. According to the environmental Kuznets curve. The econometric model of the relationship between two kinds of carbon emissions and economic development is constructed for different types of carbon emission cities. The research shows that the urban carbon emission trajectory of China follows the inverted "U" type. However, there are great differences among different cities, including at least five types: High-high-carbon cities show a positive "U" development trajectory, and the other four types of development patterns are all inverted "U" type. In particular, medium carbon urban agglomeration; These four development models have different carbon emitter-economic development curves and different peaks of per capita carbon emissions and total carbon emissions. However, the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in low-carbon urban agglomerations is not very significant. Based on the results of the model, based on the per capita GDP development rate of each city. The time of arrival of the inflection point of per capita carbon emission and the inflection point of total carbon emission of each city in the future is calculated. The results show that if the cities still develop according to the carbon-emission economic model before 2012. Only 44% of the cities will be able to reach the peak by 2030, so cities with longer peaks must implement low-carbon development strategies. Peak per capita carbon emissions for high-carbon cities fell by 10% or by 20 for low-carbon cities in 2030.
【作者单位】：北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;中国21世纪议程管理中心;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划“我国绿色低碳发展的关键支撑政策与技术研究”(编号:2012BAC20B08)
【分类号】：X321
【正文快照】： 中国在“十二五”期间将能耗强度和二氧化碳排放强度相对于“十一五”水平分别下降16%和17%。2014年11月12日,国家主席习近平和美国总统奥巴马在北京发布应对气候变化的联合声明,声明中表示我国希望在2030年甚至更早达到碳排放峰值。中国向世界承诺了中国碳排放绝对值达到顶峰

【相似文献】