基于RICE模型的区域二氧化碳排放路径研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 23:03

本文关键词：基于RICE模型的区域二氧化碳排放路径研究　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,二氧化碳排放所带来的温室效应等气候变化问题越来越受到社会各方的重视,我国作为二氧化碳排放大国,面临着来自世界各国要求承担减排责任的重大压力。作为一个负责任的大国,在2009年的哥本哈根气候变化大会上,中国政府郑重承诺,到2020年,中国的碳排放强度将比2005年降低40~45%。但对于国内如何安排二氧化碳的排放路径,才能充分考虑各区域的能源、经济和环境现状,在保证减排目标完成的前提下,又能最大限度地促进国内经济的发展,提升社会福利水平是一个亟需解决的问题。本文首先通过选取能源-经济-环境相关指标,利用多指标面板数据聚类分析的方法,构建了区域划分的模型,运用该模型将我国30个省区划分成五大区域,然后在此基础上,运用区域气候综合评估方法的思想,在气候变化综合评估模型(RICE)的基础上,构建了符合我国国情的区域气候综合评估模型,该模型充分考虑不同地区的能源、经济、环境现状,包含四个模块,即目标函数模块、经济学模块、气候学模块和经济气候链接模块。以上述构建的模型为方法基础,以不同的排放政策作为约束,设定不同的减排方案,对我国的二氧化碳排放路径进行了研究,从实证分析的结果可以看出,实行碳税制度在一定程度上能够降低我国的二氧化碳排放量,以及相应的碳排放强度。最终,只有考虑经济有效增长的方案4能够实现我国设定的碳减排目标,2020年碳排放强度将比2005年下将40%。未来实行碳税政策以及区域差异化的排放任务分配政策对保证我国经济的有效增长具有重要作用和意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide emissions and other climate change issues have been paid more and more attention by all parties in society. China is a big carbon dioxide emission country. As a responsible power, at the Copenhagen Climate change Conference on 2009, the Chinese government solemnly pledged to take responsibility for reducing emissions by 2020. China's carbon emission intensity will be 40% lower than in 2005. But how to arrange the carbon dioxide emissions path in the country can take full account of the energy, economic and environmental situation in various regions. On the premise of ensuring the completion of emission reduction targets, it can promote the development of domestic economy to the maximum extent. It is an urgent problem to improve the level of social welfare. Firstly, by selecting energy-economy-environment-related indicators and using multi-index panel data clustering analysis method, this paper constructs a model of regional division. The model is used to divide 30 provinces and regions into five regions. On this basis, the idea of regional climate comprehensive assessment method is used, based on the climate change comprehensive assessment model (RICE). A comprehensive assessment model of regional climate is constructed, which fully considers the energy, economic and environmental status of different regions. The model includes four modules, namely, objective function module and economics module. Climatology module and economic climate link module. Based on the above model, different emission policies are used as constraints, different emission reduction schemes are set up, and the carbon dioxide emission path in China is studied. From the results of empirical analysis, we can see that the implementation of carbon tax system to a certain extent can reduce China's carbon dioxide emissions, as well as the corresponding carbon emission intensity. Only considering the effective economic growth option 4 can achieve the carbon emission reduction target set by our country. In 2020, the intensity of carbon emissions will be 40% higher than that under 2005. In the future, the implementation of carbon tax policy and regional differentiated emission assignment policy will play an important role and significance in ensuring the effective growth of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X321

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