基于改进型生态足迹的武隆县生态安全评价与预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 06:08

本文关键词：基于改进型生态足迹的武隆县生态安全评价与预测研究　出处：《重庆工商大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济的快速发展、人口的增长以及消费模式的转变等使人类对自然生态系统的需求越来越大,由此引起的资源约束趋紧、环境污染以及生态退化等问题制约着我国经济社会的发展。如何量化人类经济社会活动对生态环境的影响受到广泛关注。生态足迹理论能够衡量区域人类社会经济活动对自然资源的消耗状况以及生态系统所能提供的服务功能大小,从而可评价区域生态安全状况并为其生态建设提供建议。在此背景下,本文在研究国内外相关文献的基础上,以生态安全、生态足迹理论为指导,对武隆县生态安全进行评价与预测,以期为武隆县可持续发展提供科学依据。本文首先通过计算全球平均产量、划分武隆县畜产品生态生产性土地归属以及对化石能源地生态足迹计算方法进行改进(基于碳循环计算化石能源的生态足迹)等手段使生态足迹、生态容量及生态盈余/赤字计算结果更能反映武隆县的实际生态安全状况。其次,本文利用改进的生态足迹模型计算武隆县2009-2013年的生态足迹、生态容量及生态盈余/赤字,对武隆县的生态安全进行分析评价。结果表明:2009-2013年武隆县的各类生态足迹逐年增加,且主要来源于化石能源地和可耕地,大小顺序为:化石能源地可耕地建成地林地水域;2009-2013年武隆县各类生态容量也呈上升阶段,其中可耕地和森林占绝大部分,大小顺序为:可耕地化石能源地林地水域;2009-2013年武隆县整体生态安全尚处于生态盈余状态,从结构上来看,武隆县在可耕地、林地和化石能源地三项上有盈余,在牧草地、水域和建成地上存在生态赤字。在此基础上,利用灰色预测模型对武隆县2014-2023年的态足迹、生态容量及生态盈余/赤字进行动态预测,对武隆县未来的生态安全演化趋势进行了评价与分析。研究结果表明:武隆县未来10年的整体生态状况仍然是安全的,但是化石能源地、水域等将出现生态赤字;虽然整体上是安全的,但是生态盈余逐年减少,大约在2026年武隆县整体上将可能出现生态赤字;武隆县2014-2023年的生态足迹明显逐年增加,年平均增长率达5.1%,生态容量(其中可耕地、水域及林地生态容量逐年增加,牧草地和森林生态容量基本保持不变)也逐年增加,年平均增长率为1.54%(小于生态足迹的年增长率),不利于武隆县生态安全及可持续发展。最后,本文探讨了武隆县生态安全现状及存在的问题,为实现武隆县经济、社会的持续健康发展,提出相应调控措施:减少化石能源消费,保护森林;增加农产品产量,减少建设用地。另外,还从武隆县自然生态系统的角度出发提出相关生态安全调控措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the growth of population and the change of consumption pattern, the demand for natural ecosystem is increasing, and the resource constraints are becoming more and more tight. Environmental pollution and ecological degradation restrict the economic and social development of our country. How to quantify the impact of human economic and social activities on the ecological environment has received extensive attention. Ecological footprint theory can measure the regional human social economy. The consumption of natural resources by economic activities and the size of the services provided by ecosystems. Therefore, we can evaluate the status of regional ecological security and provide suggestions for its ecological construction. Under this background, this paper based on the study of relevant literature at home and abroad, based on ecological security, ecological footprint theory as a guide. The ecological security of Wulong County is evaluated and forecasted in order to provide scientific basis for sustainable development of Wulong County. The classification of ecological productive land of animal products in Wulong County and the improvement of the calculation method of ecological footprint of fossil energy land (based on carbon cycle calculation of ecological footprint of fossil energy) are carried out to make the ecological footprint. Ecological capacity and ecological surplus / deficit calculation results can better reflect the actual ecological security of Wulong County. Secondly, this paper uses the improved ecological footprint model to calculate the ecological footprint of Wulong County from 2009 to 2013. The ecological capacity and ecological surplus / deficit of Wulong County were analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that the ecological footprint of Wulong County increased year by year from 2009 to 2013. And it mainly comes from fossil energy land and arable land, the order of size is: the forest land water area of the completed land of fossil energy land; In 2009-2013, the ecological capacity of all kinds of Wulong County also showed an increasing stage, in which arable land and forest accounted for the majority, the order was: arable land, fossil energy land forest waters; From 2009 to 2013, the overall ecological security of Wulong County is still in the state of ecological surplus. From a structural point of view, Wulong County has surplus in arable land, forest land and fossil energy land, and in pasture land. On the basis of this, the dynamic prediction of the state footprint, ecological capacity and ecological surplus / deficit of Wulong County from 2014-2023 was carried out by using grey forecasting model. The evolution trend of ecological security in Wulong County is evaluated and analyzed. The results show that the overall ecological situation of Wulong County in the next 10 years is still safe, but fossil energy land. There will be ecological deficits in the waters and so on; Although it is safe on the whole, the ecological surplus is decreasing year by year, and in 2026, Wulong County as a whole will probably have ecological deficit. The ecological footprint of Wulong County in 2014-2023 was obviously increased year by year, the annual average growth rate was 5.1, ecological capacity (including arable land, water area and woodland ecological capacity) increased year by year. The annual average growth rate is 1.54 (less than the annual growth rate of ecological footprint), which is not conducive to the ecological security and sustainable development of Wulong County. This paper discusses the present situation and existing problems of ecological security in Wulong County. In order to realize the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society of Wulong County, the corresponding control measures are put forward: reducing the consumption of fossil energy and protecting the forest; In addition, from the point of view of the natural ecosystem of Wulong County, the relevant ecological security control measures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X826

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