中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 07:18

本文关键词：中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及影响因素研究　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：畜禽业是关系国计民生的重要产业,在满足居民生活物质需求的同时,其生产过程中所伴随的温室气体排放问题已成为不容忽视的环境问题。本文基于LMDI模型系统分析了1991-2013年中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及其因素贡献。结果表明:1从时间维度来看,1991-2013年,中国畜禽温室气体排放经历了先快速上升后稳定上升再波动下降的变化特征,总体呈上升趋势。经济效应对畜禽温室气体排放促进作用最大,而强度效应的抑制作用最大,其次是劳动力效应和结构效应。2期间,经济效应促进作用的累计贡献呈指数增长,而强度效应抑制作用的累计贡献呈倒"U",劳动力效应和结构效应抑制作用也不断加强。3从空间维度来看,中国畜禽温室气体排放的区域集中度较高,四川、河南、山东、云南和内蒙古等省(区、市)畜禽温室气体排放一直位居全国前列。4省域各效应作用方向和程度差异显著,四川、青海和云南强度效应抑制作用较大,辽宁、吉林和黑龙江抑制作用较小;山东、四川和黑龙江结构效应抑制作用显著,新疆和青海促进作用明显;四川、河南、内蒙古、山东、云南、湖南和河北经济效应促进作用较大,天津、上海、海南和北京促进作用较小;四川、湖北、江苏和山东劳动力效应抑制作用显著,新疆、黑龙江和内蒙古促进作用明显。最后,基于研究结论,为未来中国畜禽温室气体减排空间发展策略提出了几点建议。
[Abstract]:Livestock and poultry industry is an important industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The greenhouse gas emission in the production process has become an environmental problem that can not be ignored. Based on the LMDI model, this paper systematically analyzes the temporal and spatial variation of greenhouse gas emissions of livestock and poultry in China from 1991 to 2013. The results show that:. 1 from the perspective of time dimension. From 1991 to 2013, the greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese livestock and poultry experienced a rapid rise, then a steady rise and then a fluctuating decline. The economic effect on greenhouse gas emission of livestock and poultry was the largest, while the intensity effect was the largest, followed by labor force effect and structural effect during the period of .2. The accumulative contribution of the economic effect promoting effect is exponential increasing, while the accumulative contribution of the intensity effect inhibition function is inverted "U", and the labor force effect and the structure effect inhibition function are also strengthened continuously from the spatial dimension. The regional concentration of greenhouse gas emissions of livestock and poultry in China is relatively high, such as Sichuan, Henan, Shandong, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia. The greenhouse gas emission of livestock and poultry has been in the forefront of the whole country. 4. There are significant differences in the direction and degree of the effects in different provinces. The intensity effects of Sichuan, Qinghai and Yunnan are more inhibited than those of Liaoning. Jilin and Heilongjiang have little inhibitory effect; In Shandong, Sichuan and Heilongjiang, the inhibitory effect of structural effect was significant, and the promoting effect of Xinjiang and Qinghai was obvious. The economic effects of Sichuan, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Yunnan, Hunan and Hebei are greater than those of Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan and Beijing. Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu and Shandong labor force effect inhibition is significant, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia promote significantly. Finally, based on the conclusion of the study. Some suggestions are put forward for the future space development strategy of greenhouse gas emission reduction of livestock and poultry in China.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：教育部博士点基金项目“地理标志农产品的生产组织与利益分配”(批准号:20130097110033) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD) 南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心建设项目
【分类号】：X713
【正文快照】： 20世纪90年代以来,全球气候变化成为人类经济社会可持续发展所面临的重大挑战,畜禽温室气体排放日益受到社会各界的关注。联合国粮农组织(FAO)2006年的报告显示,每年由牛、羊、马、骆驼、猪和家禽排放温室气体的CO2当量占全球排放量的18%[1]。而世界观察研究所2009年的报告指

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