电力部门碳排放影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 22:58

本文关键词： 电力部门碳排放影响因素分段线性模型　出处：《北京理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前全球气候变暖、极端天气频发,各国纷纷提出减排目标。我国作为碳排放总量世界第一的国家,面临巨大减排压力。本文通过对电力部门碳排放、电力部门生产和消费的历史与现状进行分析,总结了影响电力部门碳排放的主要因素包括经济发展、产业结构、人口结构、城市化率电源结构、技术水平。针对上述经济社会因素,本文选取了全球136个经济体,1971年-2011年40年间的历史数据进行了实证分析,发现除技术水平与电力部门碳排放呈反向变动关系以外,其他因素均与之呈正向变动关系。本文还特别关注了GDP对电力部门碳排放的影响,对二者的关系进行了进一步的研究。本文选取自适应分段线性模型,在等样本量分段方法下,分15段的情形下分别对7个不同组合模型进行了估计。本文估计结果显示,经济发展、产业结构、人口结构、城市化率、电源结构、技术水平6项因素中,经济发展是对电力部门碳排放影响最大的因素,人均GDP每增加1%,电力部门人均碳排放量随之增加1.01%。在经济发展水平较低阶段,电力部门人均碳排放随着人均GDP增加而增加,但当人均GDP达到2.5万美元(2005年不变价,PPP)左右时,电力部门人均碳排放随人均GDP增加的速度会放缓。本文的样本研究中GDP和电力部门碳排放并没有出现清晰的EKC曲线。
[Abstract]:At present, global warming, frequent extreme weather, countries have proposed emission reduction targets. As the world's largest carbon emissions, China is facing tremendous pressure to reduce carbon emissions. The history and present situation of production and consumption in power sector are analyzed, and the main factors influencing carbon emission in power sector are summarized, including economic development, industrial structure, population structure and power supply structure of urbanization rate. Technology level. In view of the above economic and social factors, this paper selects 136 economies around the world, and carries out empirical analysis of historical data from 1971 to 2011. It is found that except for the reverse relationship between the technical level and the carbon emissions in the power sector, other factors are positively correlated. This paper also pays special attention to the influence of GDP on the carbon emissions in the power sector. In this paper, the adaptive piecewise linear model is selected, and the method of equal sample size segmentation is used. The results show that economic development, industrial structure, population structure, urbanization rate, power supply structure and technological level are among the six factors. Economic development is the biggest impact on carbon emissions in the power sector. With the increase of per capita GDP, the per capita carbon emissions in the power sector will increase by 1.010.In the low level of economic development. Carbon emissions per capita in the electricity sector increase with the increase in GDP per capita, but when per capita GDP reaches $25,000 (at constant prices in 2005). The per capita carbon emissions of the power sector will slow down with the increase of GDP per capita. There is no clear EKC curve for GDP and carbon emissions from the power sector in the sample study in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：北京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X322;F426.61

【参考文献】