碳排放权价格的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 12:53

本文关键词： 碳排放权市场碳排放权价格影响因素 VEC模型　出处：《长沙理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着对气候变化问题研究的不断深入,碳排放权市场越来越受到各国政府及利益集团的重视。在减少碳排放的过程中,作为市场驱动力之一的碳排放权价格发挥着巨大的作用。它的波动是多方面因素综合影响导致的,碳排放权价格的典型特点是不确定性、非线性、动态性等,本文从碳排放权价格的影响因素进行分析讨论。本文采用理论与实证相结合的研究方法,探讨碳排放价格的影响因素。首先介绍了选题背景及研究意义,深入研究碳排放权价格的影响因素有着理论和现实双重意义。然后界定了碳排放权及其相关的概念,紧跟着对碳排放权市场进行分类,并从交易制度、交易方式、交易价格来对碳排放权市场进行研究,在此基础上探讨了碳排放权市场的供求理论。再接着分析欧盟碳排放权交易市场和中国碳排放权交易市场的状况,并对欧盟碳排放权价格的波动特点进行分析。由于欧盟碳交易市场是全球最大的碳市场,其交易量最大、价格最高,所以研究其价格的波动特点具有代表性。并从其价格的波动性来探讨能源价格、工业生产、异质性环境、政策因素等对碳排放权价格的影响。由于政策因素难以量化,本文接着对能源价格、工业生产、异质性环境运用协整检验、VEC模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等实证方法进行检验,结果发现在长期它们存在均衡的稳定关系,能源价格、工业生产与碳排放权价格存在正相关关系,异质性环境与碳排放权价格存在负相关关系,且异质性环境在长期对碳排放权价格影响程度最深。在短期能源价格对碳排放权价格产生的影响程度最大,其次是异质性环境,虽然工业生产在短期对其没有显著地影响,但可能是由于碳排放权价格过低或者配额数量过于宽松,以至于企业在生产决策时对碳排放权价格的关注很低。最后根据以上的理论和实证分析的结果对平抑中国碳排放权价格波动提出相应的建议,从能源角度上来说应该稳定能源市场,提高能源使用效率,发展清洁能源；从工业生产角度来说,应该大力发展第三产业,改变高污染、高排放的发展模式,减少碳排放,降低碳排放权价格；从异质性角度来讲虽然经济危机等无法控制,但是可以建立碳交易风险管理体系,提高面对危机的能力,减少碳排放权价格剧烈波动带来的影响。
[Abstract]:With the development of the research on climate change, the market of carbon emission rights has been paid more and more attention by governments and interest groups. In the process of reducing carbon emissions, As one of the driving forces of the market, the price of carbon emission rights plays a great role. Its fluctuation is caused by a combination of many factors. The typical characteristics of carbon emission price are uncertainty, nonlinearity, dynamic and so on. In this paper, the influencing factors of carbon emission price are analyzed and discussed, and the influence factors of carbon emission price are discussed by combining theoretical and empirical research methods. Firstly, the background and significance of the research are introduced. It is of both theoretical and practical significance to deeply study the factors affecting the price of carbon emission rights. Then, it defines carbon emission rights and their related concepts, and then classifies the carbon emission rights market immediately, and from the trading system, trading methods, On the basis of the research on carbon emission rights market, the paper discusses the supply and demand theory of carbon emission rights market, and then analyzes the situation of European Union carbon emission rights trading market and China carbon emission rights trading market. This paper also analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of the price of carbon emission rights in the European Union. Because the carbon trading market in the EU is the largest carbon market in the world, its trading volume is the largest and the price is the highest. So it is representative to study its price fluctuation characteristics, and from its price volatility to explore the impact of energy price, industrial production, heterogeneous environment, policy factors on the price of carbon emission rights. Because the policy factors are difficult to quantify, This paper then tests the energy price, industrial production, heterogeneity environment using cointegration test / VEC model, Granger causality test, impulse response, variance decomposition and other empirical methods. The results show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between them in the long run. There is a positive correlation between energy price, industrial production and carbon emission right price, and a negative correlation exists between heterogeneous environment and carbon emission right price. And heterogeneity environment has the most influence on carbon emission right price in the long run. In the short term, energy price has the greatest influence on carbon emission right price, followed by heterogeneity environment, although industrial production has no significant impact on carbon emission right price in the short term. But it could be because the price of carbon emissions is too low or quotas are too loose. Therefore, enterprises pay little attention to the price of carbon emission rights when they make production decisions. Finally, according to the above theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to stabilize the price fluctuation of carbon emission rights in China. From the energy point of view, we should stabilize the energy market, improve the efficiency of energy use, and develop clean energy. From the perspective of industrial production, we should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, change the development model of high pollution and high emissions, and reduce carbon emissions. Reducing the price of carbon emission rights; from the perspective of heterogeneity although the economic crisis can not be controlled but can establish a carbon trading risk management system to improve the ability to face the crisis reduce the impact of sharp fluctuations in carbon emissions rights price.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X196

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