环境影响的IPAT模型再认识

发布时间：2018-03-07 14:16

本文选题：环境影响　切入点：IPAT模型　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：伴随工业文明的发展,探究日益恶化环境问题的社会根源成为学术界激烈争论的议题,从人口规模与技术水平的单因素争论拓展到文化背景、政府类型和消费观念等多因素论的讨论,在横向上从宏观社会到微观个体层次的解释,最终形成经典的环境影响的IPAT模型,试图解释环境问题产生的复杂社会动力机制。本文通过国内外学者对IPAT模型的实证研究以及理论探讨梳理发现:模型中的因变量环境影响I以及自变量人口数量P、富裕程度A和技术水平T的内涵、完备性以及分析单位的适用性等方面备受争议。为了克服变量的局限,首先通过分解IPAT模型中T变量,进一步拓展模型中可能被忽略的对环境影响的多重因素;同时为了避免模型中不同因素对环境影响的同比例线性变化的局限性,将IPAT模型转化为非线性的STIRPAT随机模型,使各变量值随观察值的变化而变化;其次为了克服研究中忽视个体对环境影响差异性的不足,以"双重转换"理论为基础分析少数特权群体对环境造成不成比例的影响;最后面对分析单位以及分析情景的差异性与复杂性,基于"世界体系论"视角突破特定区域时空以国家间互动关系为分析单位对全球环境退化展开讨论。研究表明,IPAT模型的发展演变表明环境保护与经济发展关系逐渐从悲观的"零和"冲突走向协调发展的路径,有利于探索更加有效的举措应对全球复杂而严峻的环境问题,同时对新常态下中国推进生态文明建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrial civilization, it has become a subject of intense debate in academic circles to explore the social root of worsening environmental problems, from the single factor argument of population scale and technological level to the cultural background. The discussion of multi-factor theory, such as government type and consumption concept, explains horizontally from macro-social to micro-individual level, and finally forms the classical IPAT model of environmental impact. This paper attempts to explain the complex social dynamic mechanism of environmental problems. Through empirical research and theoretical study of IPAT model by domestic and foreign scholars, we find that: the dependent variables environmental impact I and the number of independent variables population in the model. The meaning of P, degree of affluence A and technical level T, In order to overcome the limitation of variables, firstly, by decomposing T variables in IPAT model, we further extend the multiple factors that may be neglected in the model. At the same time, in order to avoid the limitation of the same proportional linear variation of different factors in the model, the IPAT model is transformed into a nonlinear STIRPAT random model, which makes the values of each variable change with the observed value. Secondly, in order to overcome the deficiency of neglecting the difference of individual impact on environment in the research, this paper analyzes the disproportionate influence of minority privileged groups on the environment based on the theory of "double transformation". Finally, facing the difference and complexity of the analysis unit and the analysis situation, Based on the view of "world system theory", a discussion on global environmental degradation is carried out through the space-time and space-time of specific regions. The research shows that the development and evolution of IPAT model shows the relationship between environmental protection and economic development. Gradually moving from a pessimistic "zero-sum" conflict to a path of coordinated development, It is beneficial to explore more effective measures to deal with the global complex and severe environmental problems, and also has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the construction of ecological civilization in China under the new normal.
【作者单位】：重庆大学公共管理学院;重庆大学人口资源环境经济与管理研究中心;
【基金】：重庆市社会科学规划博士项目“基层主体参与环境政策执行过程的社会学研究”(编号:2014BS041) 中央高校重庆大学专项项目“社会力量参与环境治理的社会过程研究”(编号:2015CDJXY)
【分类号】：X2

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