广东省土地生态安全预警初步研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 09:38

本文选题：土地生态安全　切入点：预警　出处：《中国科学院研究生院(广州地球化学研究所)》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础,然而近半个世纪以来,随着经济发展,工业化和城市化水平快速提升,人口迅速增加,有限的土地资源已经无法满足人类无限膨胀的需求,大量耕地、林地被转化为建设用地,土壤污染严重,导致一系列土地生态问题相继出现,严重影响了区域的可持续发展。土地生态安全研究作为土地资源可持续利用研究的重要内容,具有重要现实意义。本文以广东省土地生态安全问题为研究对象,基于P-S-R模型,从压力-状态-响应三方面选取27项指标构建广东省土地生态安全评价指标体系,从时空二维角度对广东省土地生态安全进行评价,运用Matlab9.0软件,对广东省未来五年土地生态安全演变趋势进行预测。利用熵权原理和变异系数法分析影响广东省土地生态安全的时空演变机制,并根据各主体功能区的土地生态安全特点,从主体功能区划角度提出调控土地生态安全的措施建议,得出了一些主要结论如下:(1)2000-2012年,广东省土地生态安全综合指数呈好转态势,由“中警”下降到“预警”状态,但土地生态安全综合指数十三年间仅增长0.107,土地生态系统仍面临较大困境。预测2013-2017年,综合指数在0.73左右波动,平稳中略有上升,处于轻警良好状态。(2)根据熵权原理,影响广东省土地生态安全历年波动的因素主要是自然灾害受灾面积比重、公路密度、建成区面积比重、人均土地后备资源、人均GDP、经济密度、农民人均纯收入、环保投资占GDP比重、自然保护区面积比重等指标。(3)2012年广东省21市土地生态安全综合指数在0.493~0.790之间,各市差距较大,基本呈粤北粤西警情高,珠三角和粤东警情低的格局,其中珠海市土地生态安全综合指数最高,云浮市最低。(4)根据变异系数,导致广东省土地生态安全空间分异的因素主要是经济密度、环保投资占GDP比重、建成区面积比重、人口密度、自然灾害受灾面积比重、自然保护区面积比重、人均土地后备资源等指标,这些指标各市差异较大。(5)将2012年广东省土地生态安全空间分布格局与主体功能区划相结合,分析不同主体功能区内土地生态安全状况及影响因素。结果表明,优化开发区土地生态安全综合指数整体水平最高,其次是重点开发区,农产品主产区最低。优化开发区“压力-状态-响应”水平总体上依次处于“较高水平-低水平-较高水平”,重点开发区处于“中等水平-中等水平-高水平”,农产品主产区处于“低水平-高水平-中等水平”;重点生态功能区处于“高水平-较高水平-低水平”。各区内影响土地生态安全水平的因素各不相同。(6)从主体功能区角度调控全省土地生态安全,优化开发区应将实现土地节约集约利用放在首位;重点开发区应将提高土地利用效益放在首位;重点生态功能区应坚持适度开发、生态优先理念;农产品主产区应将提高土地生产力放在首位。
[Abstract]:Land is the material foundation on which human beings depend for survival and development. However, in the past half century, with the rapid development of economy, industrialization and urbanization, the population has increased rapidly. Limited land resources have been unable to meet the unlimited expansion of human needs, a large number of arable land, forest land has been converted into construction land, serious soil pollution, resulting in a series of land ecological problems have emerged. The study of land ecological security, as an important content of the sustainable use of land resources, has important practical significance. This paper takes the land ecological security problem of Guangdong Province as the research object, based on the P-S-R model. The evaluation index system of land ecological security in Guangdong Province is constructed by selecting 27 indexes from three aspects of pressure-status-response. The land ecological security of Guangdong Province is evaluated from the angle of space and time, and the Matlab9.0 software is used to evaluate the land ecological security of Guangdong province. The evolution trend of land ecological security in Guangdong Province in the next five years is forecasted. The temporal and spatial evolution mechanism of land ecological security in Guangdong Province is analyzed by using entropy weight principle and coefficient of variation method, and according to the characteristics of land ecological security in each main function area. From the angle of main function regionalization, the paper puts forward some measures to control land ecological security, and draws some main conclusions as follows: from 2000 to 2012, the comprehensive index of land ecological security in Guangdong Province showed a trend of improvement, which decreased from "middle police" to "early warning". However, the comprehensive index of land ecological security increased only 0.107 in 13 years, and the land ecosystem is still facing great difficulties. It is predicted that in 2013-2017, the comprehensive index will fluctuate around 0.73, rise slightly, and be in a good state of light warning. The main factors that affect the fluctuation of land ecological security in Guangdong Province over the years are natural disaster area proportion, highway density, area proportion of built-up area, per capita land reserve resources, per capita GDP, economic density, per capita net income of farmers. In 2012, the comprehensive index of land ecological security in 21 cities of Guangdong Province was between 0.493 and 0.790. The gap between the cities was large, which was basically the pattern of high police situation in western Guangdong and low police situation in Pearl River Delta and East Guangdong. Among them, Zhuhai has the highest comprehensive index of land ecological security, and Yunfu is the lowest. According to the coefficient of variation, the main factors leading to the spatial differentiation of land ecological security in Guangdong Province are economic density, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP and the proportion of built-up area. Population density, natural disaster area proportion, nature reserve area proportion, per capita land reserve resources, etc. In 2012, the spatial distribution pattern of land ecological security in Guangdong Province was combined with the main function zoning to analyze the status of land ecological security and its influencing factors in different main functional areas. The overall level of land ecological security comprehensive index in the optimized development zones is the highest, followed by the key development zones. The level of "pressure-state-response" in the optimized development zone is in the order of "higher level-lower level-higher level", and the key development zone is "medium level-medium level-high level". The main production areas of agricultural products are in "low level-high level-medium level"; the key ecological functional areas are in "high level-high level-low level". To regulate and control the ecological security of land in the province from the perspective of energy regions, To optimize the development zone, we should put the realization of land saving and intensive utilization first, the key development zone should improve the benefit of land use in the first place, and the key ecological function areas should adhere to the idea of appropriate development and ecological priority. The main produce area of agricultural products should raise land productivity to put first place.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院研究生院(广州地球化学研究所)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X826

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