长三角城市群大气污染格局的时空演变特征

发布时间：2018-03-16 05:26

本文选题：空间马尔可夫链　切入点：大气污染　出处：《城市问题》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：采用马尔可夫链和空间马尔可夫链分析方法,对2003-2013年长三角城市群PM10年均浓度的时空演化特征进行了分析。根据PM10年均浓度的平均水平,将长三角城市群大气污染划分为低浓度、较低浓度、较高浓度和高浓度4种类型,分别计算了其马尔可夫转移概率矩阵和空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵。结果表明:近年来长三角城市群大气污染空间分布的不平衡性有扩大趋势,并存在一定的趋同现象;低浓度类型和高浓度类型趋同的稳定性相对较大;短期内各地区大气污染类型发生跨级转移的可能性极低;长三角城市群大气污染格局演化在空间上并不独立,受邻域条件的影响较为明显;邻域污染水平等级越低,大气污染类型向下转变的概率越大,反之越小。
[Abstract]:Using Markov chain and spatial Markov chain analysis method, the Yangtze River Delta city group space for 2003-2013 years the annual concentration of PM10 evolution characteristics were analyzed. According to the average annual concentration of PM10, the air pollution in Yangtze River Delta city group is divided into low concentration, low concentration, high concentration and high concentration of 4 types have been calculated by Markov transtion-probablity matrix and spatialmarkov transtion-probablity matrix. The results showed that: in recent years, the Yangtze River Delta city group space distribution of air pollution imbalance has a tendency to expand, and the phenomenon of convergence in certain; stability low concentration and high concentration of type type of convergence is relatively large; the short-term regional air pollution possibility of transfer across the polar class low air pollution pattern; Yangtze River Delta city group evolution in space is not independent, affected by the neighborhood condition is obvious; neighborhood pollution The lower the level, the greater the probability of the downward change in the air pollution type, and the smaller the opposite.

【作者单位】：上海社会科学院生态经济与可持续发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD081)
【分类号】：X51

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