水质变化趋势的非参数检验研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 06:18

本文选题：非参数检验　切入点：协变量　出处：《兰州财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：环境问题受到人们的广泛关注,而影响环境变化的因素可分为自然因素和人为因素。非参数检验方法——Partial Hirsch-Slack(PHS检验)可以具体区分环境问题是由自然因素引起的还是由人为因素引起的,PHS检验是在剔除了自然因素的影响下,分析人类活动对环境问题的影响。本文在Mann-Kendall(MK检验)和季节性Kendall检验的基础上,进一步研究了改进的季节性Kendall检验(HS检验)和Partial Hirsch-Slack(PHS检验),并对HS检验和PHS检验进行了改进。通过蒙特卡罗方法模拟了不同频率、不同时间长度的数据,对非参数检验方法 HS检验和PHS检验进了检验功效的研究;基于蒙特卡洛方法模拟了HS检验和PHS检验的经验显著性水平,均证明了HS检验和PHS检验的优越性。非参数检验方法——HS检验和PHS检验,均不考虑数据的大小,只注重相对值或数据的排列,可以避免数据缺失值和异常值带来的影响,并且在数据存在依赖性的情况下,HS检验和PHS检验均能表现出很好的检验效果。在对HS检验和PHS检验进行了深入的研究之后,本文搜集了2004年~2013年的高频数据——周数据,对黄河流域三个监测点进行了水质变化趋势的实例分析,其中包括:甘肃兰州新城桥、山西运城河津大桥、山东济南泺水。检验水质评价指标PH值、溶解氧?DO?、高锰酸钾盐指数??MnCOD、氨氮??3NH-N的变化趋势。PHS检验中选取的环境因素:日照时间、平均温度、平均风速分别作为协变量,检验水质评价指标的变化趋势。HS检验是在不加入协变量的前提下,直接检验某一评价指标的变化趋势。实例研究结果表明:通过对比HS检验和PHS检验的结果,实例研究结果表明PHS检验具有很好的适用性。
[Abstract]:Environmental issues have received widespread attention. The factors affecting environmental change can be divided into natural factors and human factors. The non-parametric test (partial Hirsch-Slack(PHS test) can specifically distinguish whether environmental problems are caused by natural factors or human factors. In addition to natural factors, On the basis of Mann-Kendall(MK test and seasonal Kendall test, The improved seasonal Kendall test (HS test) and Partial Hirsch-Slack(PHS test (Partial Hirsch-Slack(PHS test) are further studied, and the HS test and PHS test are improved. The data of different frequency and time length are simulated by Monte Carlo method. Based on Monte Carlo method, the empirical significance level of HS test and PHS test is simulated. Both of them prove the superiority of HS test and PHS test. The non-parametric testing methods HS test and PHS test do not consider the size of the data, but only pay attention to the relative value or the arrangement of the data, which can avoid the influence of the missing value and the abnormal value of the data. Under the condition of data dependence, both HS test and PHS test can show good results. After in-depth research on HS test and PHS test, this paper collects high frequency data from 2004 to 2013. Three monitoring sites in the Yellow River basin are analyzed, including Xincheng Bridge in Lanzhou, Gansu Province, Hejin Bridge in Yuncheng City, Shandong Province, and Luoshui in Jinan, Shandong Province. DO? , potassium permanganate index? ? MnCOD, ammonia nitrogen? ? Environmental factors selected in 3NH-N test: sunshine time, mean temperature, average wind speed as covariables. The result of case study shows that by comparing the results of HS test and PHS test, the result of case study shows that PHS test has good applicability.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X832

【参考文献】