基于城镇化门槛模型的中国OFDI的碳排放效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 22:22

本文选题：OFDI　切入点：碳排放　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年09期

【摘要】：由于以城镇化为重点的经济发展被视为对外直接投资的基本条件,且城镇化、跨国投资的碳排放效应在现有文献中已被证实,构建包含以上三者的一体化分析框架是本文的主要目标。在我国新型城镇化发展背景下,研究如何更好通过"走出去"来实现城镇碳减排和经济集约化发展,具有必要性和现实意义。基于此,本文采用2003—2012年间中国30个省份的面板数据,在探讨各城镇化阶段对外直接投资影响母国碳排放发生机制的基础上,通过构建城镇化面板门槛模型和碳排放拓展模型,对中国城镇化进程中对外直接投资的碳排放效应的阶段性差异及其产生原因进行实证分析。研究表明,对外直接投资的碳排放效应存在城镇化率门槛值的制约,处于中高城镇化阶段的地区通过对外直接投资降低城镇碳排放水平的效果较之于处于低城镇化阶段的地区更为显著。具体看来,在中游城镇化率区段,对外直接投资能实现过剩产能输出和产业链升级,规模效应和结构效应构成了对外直接投资的碳排放效应的传导路径;在高度城镇化率区段,对外直接投资能实现污染密集型产业输出和技术溢出,规模效应和技术效应则构成了对外直接投资的碳排放效应的传导路径。进一步对城镇化集聚成本门槛效应分析发现,对外直接投资的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应分别是高度城镇化人口拥挤成本、竞争加剧成本和环境治理成本阶段的碳排放水平下降的主要原因。这意味着,要想充分发挥对外直接投资对碳减排的作用,城镇化率较高的地区尤其需要"因势利导"加快传统产业资本输出,优化资源配置和推动结构升级,实施创新驱动发展战略。同时,城镇化率较低的地区则应在工业化过程中,注意避免沦为高碳产业资本的污染"避难所"。
[Abstract]:As economic development with a focus on urbanization is seen as a basic condition for OFDI, and urbanization, the effects of transnational investment on carbon emissions have been confirmed in the existing literature.The main goal of this paper is to construct an integrated analysis framework including the above three.Under the background of new urbanization in China, it is necessary and practical to study how to realize the development of urban carbon emission reduction and economic intensification through "going out".Based on this, this paper uses panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2012 to explore the mechanism of the impact of FDI on carbon emissions in home countries in different urbanization stages.Through the construction of urbanization panel threshold model and carbon emission expansion model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the stage difference of carbon emission effect of China's foreign direct investment in the process of urbanization and its causes.The research shows that the carbon emission effect of OFDI is restricted by the threshold of urbanization rate.In the middle and high urbanization stage, the effect of reducing the level of urban carbon emission through FDI is more significant than that in the low urbanization stage.Specifically, in the urbanization rate section of the middle reaches, OFDI can achieve excess capacity output and industrial chain upgrading, scale effect and structural effect constitute the conduction path of FDI carbon emission effect; in the section of high urbanization rate,FDI can realize the export of pollution-intensive industries and technology spillover, and the scale effect and technological effect constitute the conduction path of carbon emission effect of FDI.Further analysis on the threshold effect of urbanization agglomeration cost shows that the scale effect, structural effect and technical effect of FDI are respectively high urbanization population crowding costs.The main reason for the decrease of carbon emission level in the stage of increasing the cost of competition and the cost of environmental governance.This means that in order to give full play to the role of foreign direct investment in reducing carbon emissions, regions with high urbanization rates, in particular, need to speed up the export of traditional industrial capital, optimize the allocation of resources and promote structural upgrading.Implement innovation-driven development strategy.At the same time, regions with low urbanization rate should pay attention to avoid becoming a pollution "refuge" of high carbon industrial capital in the process of industrialization.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;华中科技大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国对外直接投资的产业转移效应及对策研究”(批准号:14BJY088) 中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(批准号:2015AA002)
【分类号】：X321;F832.6

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