基于空间计量的人口规模、结构对环境的影响效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 19:37

本文选题：人口规模 + 人口结构　；参考：《经济经纬》2016年05期

【摘要】：笔者在对我国30个省份2000年~2010年的CO2排放量进行估算的基础上,将其与工业废气排放量、工业废水排放量和工业固体废物产生量作为环境质量指标,利用空间自相关检验的Moran’s I指数法分别检验了四项环境质量指标的空间自相关性。在空间相关性检验的基础上,以STIRPAT模型为理论基础结合空间回归模型研究了人口规模、人口结构、技术进步、产业结构等因素对四项环境质量指标的影响。结果表明:四项环境质量指标均存在着显著的空间自相关性;人口规模对各项环境质量指标的影响是正向的,人口年龄结构、城镇人口比重和家庭户规模对各项环境质量指标的影响是负向的,产业结构的优化和技术进步水平的提高都有助于减少各种污染物的排放量。
[Abstract]:On the basis of estimating the CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2010 in 30 provinces of China, the authors regard them as environmental quality indexes, such as the discharge of industrial waste gas, the discharge of industrial wastewater and the amount of industrial solid waste. The spatial autocorrelation of four environmental quality indexes was tested by the Moran's I index method of spatial autocorrelation test. On the basis of spatial correlation test, the effects of population scale, population structure, technological progress and industrial structure on four environmental quality indexes were studied based on STIRPAT model and spatial regression model. The results show that there is significant spatial autocorrelation among the four environmental quality indicators, and the effect of population size on the environmental quality indicators is positive, and the age structure of the population. The proportion of urban population and the scale of households have negative effects on the environmental quality indexes. The optimization of industrial structure and the improvement of technological progress can help to reduce the emissions of various pollutants.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学经济学院;辽宁大学信息学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CRK027) 辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(W2015171)
【分类号】：X24;F124

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