湖州市大气污染对人体健康影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 05:26

本文选题：大气污染 + 时间序列　；参考：《浙江工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着科技的不断发展进步,人口数量的迅速增长,我们在促进生产水平、推进经济的发展和提升生活水平的同时,也对环境造成的极大的伤害,环境污染问题也日益严重,环境成本也飞速增加。尤其是诸如现在的雾霾等城市大气污染问题,给我们的身心健康和社会稳定造成了严重的伤害。目前,各国人民对城市污染问题都给予了高度重视。本文在分析了湖州市如SO2、PM10和NO2等主要大气污染物的相关特性,及其对人们所造成的损伤的基础上,根据控制长久趋势、“星期几效应”和气象因素等多因素影响,对湖州市的大气污染物和人体健康的暴露-反应关系进行了剖析,并且利用时间序列半参数广义相加模型(GAM),建立了年龄、性别和疾病类型的模型,对湖州市大气污染所造成的市民健康损失情况进行了定量的评估。这一结果对于当地政府来说,为构建市民健康对大气污染敏感预警制度、相应的应对措施以及对易感人群的保护工作有了相应的理论基础。与此同时,研究成果还显示：湖州市大气污染物S02和PM1o浓度在研究期间,大致显示一个逐年下降的态势,且湿季低于干季,即夏秋低于冬春。高峰期出现在十二月到来年的五月左右,这表明PM10主要来自于春季的沙尘暴和冬季燃煤取暖的影响。冬季S02浓度相对较高,呈现典型的U型年变化趋势,这表明S02主要来自冬季燃煤取暖的影响。而N02浓度的变化较为微小,无论是在年际变化、年变化还是季节变化,基本都表现为湿季低于干季。相关数据显示,当SO2、PM10和N02的浓度增加时,福州市居民呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的危险性也相应增加。上述三种大气污染物的浓度每增加10 pg/m3时,各类呼吸系统疾病日入院人数危险性的变化如下：呼吸系统疾病全人群的增长分别为0.7%、0.5%和3.4%；URTI全人群的增长分别为1.3%、0.7%和7.1%；患肺炎全人群的增长分别为1.6%、1.0%和8.1%；COPD全人群的增长分别为2.9%、0.3%和15.9%(注：PM10对COPD全人群的影响缺乏统计学意义)。在性别层面,女性受到大气污染的影响较之男性要大。在年龄层面,针对COPD疾病,不到65岁人群所受影响明显比大于65岁的影响要大,而针对URTI与肺炎疾病,大于65岁人群遭受的影响明显大得多。同时我们也发现,湖州市大气污染也在一定程度上影响着居民的心脑血管疾病日入院人数。当SO2、PM10和N02浓度每增加10 pg/m3,其各类人群日入院人数影响如下：心脑血管疾病人群会的增长分别为0.4%、0.5%和3%(注：S02和N02对心脑血管疾病全人群的影响缺乏统计学意义)；IHD全人群的增长分别为1.3%、1.1%和3%(注：N02对IHD全人群的影响缺乏统计学意义)；高血压全人群会分别增长0.8%、1.8%和10.7%；脑卒中全人群增长分别为2.1%、1.3%和10.5%。针对IHD,大于65岁的人群会受到更大的影响,而针对高血压和脑卒中疾病来说,不到65岁人群所遭受的危害更大些。本文研究显示,湖州市大气污染在一定程度上对人们的健康造成了伤害,居民患上呼吸系统和心脑血管疾病入院人数随着大气污染物浓度的增加而相应提升,而在疾病类型、性别和年龄层面表现出不同程度的差异性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development and progress of science and technology, the rapid growth of population, while promoting the production level, promoting the economic development and improving the living standard, we have also caused great harm to the environment, the environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and the environmental cost is also increasing rapidly. There are serious injuries to our physical and mental health and social stability. At present, people of all countries have paid great attention to the problem of urban pollution. This paper analyses the related characteristics of major atmospheric pollutants such as SO2, PM10, and NO2, and the damage to people, such as SO2, PM10 and NO2. The exposure response relationship between air pollutants and human health in Huzhou was analyzed with the influence of many factors such as meteorological factors, and the model of age, sex and disease type was established by using the time series semi parametric generalized additive model (GAM), and the public health loss caused by air pollution in Huzhou was determined. At the same time, the results also showed that the concentration of S02 and PM1o in Huzhou's air pollution was roughly shown in the study period. A declining trend in the wet season is lower than the dry season, which is lower in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The peak period appears from December to about May in the coming year. This indicates that PM10 mainly comes from the effects of dust storms in spring and the heating of coal burning in winter. In winter, the concentration of S02 is relatively high, showing a typical U annual change trend, which indicates that S02 mainly comes from coal burning in winter. The change in N02 concentration is relatively small, whether it is in the interannual, annual or seasonal changes, which basically show the wet season lower than the dry season. Related data show that when the concentration of SO2, PM10 and N02 increases, the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases in Fuzhou is also increased. The above three kinds of air pollutants are also increased. When the concentration increased by 10 pg/m3, the risk of daily hospitalization of various respiratory diseases was as follows: the growth of the whole population of respiratory system diseases was 0.7%, 0.5% and 3.4%, and the growth of URTI population was 1.3%, 0.7% and 7.1%, respectively, with the growth of 1.6%, 1% and 8.1% in the whole population of pneumonia, and the growth of the whole population of COPD was 2.9 respectively. %, 0.3%, and 15.9% (Note: the effect of PM10 on the whole population of COPD lacks statistical significance). At the gender level, women are more affected by air pollution than men. At the age level, the effect of the population under the age of 65 is significantly greater than that of the 65 years old for COPD disease, and the shadow of the URTI and pneumonia, which is greater than 65 years of age, is affected. At the same time, we also found that air pollution in Huzhou also affected the population of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases to a certain extent in Huzhou. When the concentration of PM10 and N02 increased by 10 pg/m3, the number of daily hospitalization was 0.4%, 0.5%, and 3% (S02 and N02, respectively). There was a lack of statistical significance for the whole population of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases; the growth of the whole IHD population was 1.3%, 1.1% and 3% respectively (Note: the effect of N02 on IHD was lacking); the whole population of hypertension increased by 0.8%, 1.8%, and 10.7%, and the increase in the whole population of stroke was 2.1%, 1.3% and 10.5%. for IHD, more than 65 years old. The study shows that air pollution in Huzhou has caused harm to people's health to some extent, and the population of residents with respiratory and cardio cerebrovascular diseases increases with the concentration of air pollutants, this study shows. There were differences in disease types, sex and age.

【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X51

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