两种尺度下机动车排放清单及不确定性研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 00:53

本文选题：机动车 + 排放清单　；参考：《东北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的高速发展，人民生活质量的提高，机动车数量逐年迅猛发展，从而使得机动车尾气污染已经成为大气环境污染的一个重要部分，给环境治理工作带来巨大挑战。本研究基于省级尺度和城市尺度下，机动车排放清单编制方法论的不同，以广东省和佛山市为研究区域，结合COPERT排放模型，以交管部门提供以及实地问卷调查的数据信息为基础，分别采用年均行驶里程法和源强法计算了各自的机动车排放清单，并从各自不同的角度对清单进行了分析；最后利用蒙特卡罗统计方法对省级尺度和城市尺度的机动车排放不确定性进行了计算和分析。对于广东省机动车排放要素和清单，2006~2012年各车型机动车保有量都处于增长状态，，其中珠三角地区轻型客车增长小于非珠三角地区，非珠三角地区摩托车增长速率大于珠三角地区；两个地区的CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放因子都有所下降，并且不同车型对应的不同污染排放排放因子下降情况各有差异；2006~2012年珠三角地区的CO、VOC排放上升比例较慢，对于NOX和PM2.5，珠三角地区增长较快；珠三角地区在CO、VOC最大的贡献车型是轻型客车和重型客车，非珠三角为摩托车和轻型客车，而对于NOX和PM2.5，两个地区的重型客车、重型货车和轻型货车是最主要的贡献车型。本研究利用蒙特卡罗统计方法计算了广东省2012年两个地区的机动车排放清单不确定性。在不确定性范围上，珠三角地区的机动车CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放清单的不确定性范围分别为[-53.62%,7.40%]、[-53.68%,78.98%]、[-66.97%,121.34%]、[-70.96%,131.01%]，非珠三角地区为[-87.85%,232.09%]、[-76.64%,192.91%]、[-54.30%,84.79%]、[-59.25%,89.45%]；在排放不确定性贡献上，两个地区CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放不确定性贡献最大的车型为轻型货车和重型货车。对于城市尺度机动车排放清单，2012年，佛山市机动车CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5分别排放了192334.59吨、34588.51吨、38527.33吨、1403.01吨。其中CO、VOC最大的车型来源是摩托车和轻型客车，NOX和PM2.5为重型车和公交车；在排放标准贡献上，国0和国Ⅰ是主要的污染贡献来源；佛山市的主干路和支路为CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放的重要来源，高速路是NOX和PM2.5最主要的来源；佛山市一天内机动车尾气排放量的两个高峰时段为7:00~9:00和17:00~19:00；在3*3(km)高分辨率的机动车排放特征中，CO和VOC的排放主要分布在城区，NOX和PM2.5分布在城区和国道、高速路上。通过蒙特卡罗模拟，得到2012年佛山市机动车排放清单的不确定性， CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放清单的不确定性范围分别为[-62.58%，74.23%]、[-58.08%，63.85%]、[-55.45%，67.24%]、[-56.16%，66.32%]；其中CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放不确定性贡献最大的道路类型分别是国道、支路、次干路和主干路。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Chinese economy and the improvement of people's quality of life, the number of motor vehicles has developed rapidly year by year. As a result, vehicle exhaust pollution has become an important part of atmospheric environmental pollution, which brings great challenges to the environmental control work. Based on the differences between provincial scale and urban scale, this study takes Guangdong Province and Foshan City as research areas and combines with COPERT emission model. Based on the data information provided by traffic control department and questionnaire survey, the average driving mileage method and source strength method are used to calculate the vehicle emission inventory, and the inventory is analyzed from different angles. At last, Monte Carlo statistical method is used to calculate and analyze the uncertainty of vehicle emission in provincial scale and city scale. For Guangdong Province, the emission factors and inventory of motor vehicles in 2006 ~ 2012 are in a state of growth. The growth of light passenger cars in the Pearl River Delta region is smaller than that in the non-Pearl River Delta region, and the growth rate of motorcycles in the non-Pearl River Delta region is higher than that in the Pearl River Delta region. In the two regions, the emission factors of NOX and PM2.5 decreased, and the decrease of different pollution emission factors was different from 2006 to 2012 in the Pearl River Delta. For NOX and PM2.5, the increase was faster in the Pearl River Delta region. The biggest contribution models in the Pearl River Delta region are light passenger cars and heavy passenger cars, and non-Pearl River Delta motorcycles and light passenger cars. For NOX and PM2.5, heavy trucks and light trucks are the most important contribution models. In this study, Monte Carlo statistical method was used to calculate the uncertainty of vehicle emission inventory in Guangdong province in 2012. In terms of uncertainty, the uncertainty ranges of the emission inventories of motor vehicle COVOC, NOX, PM2.5 in the Pearl River Delta region are [-53.622um 7.40%], [-53.68%, 78.98%], [-66.97%, 121.34%], [-70.966,131.01%], [-87.8585 / 232.09%], [-76.6440%], [-54.3084.79%], [-59.250.45%], respectively, in the area of non-PRD areas, [-76.64% 192.91%], [-54.30% 84.79%], [-59.250.25%]; in terms of the contribution of the uncertainty to emissions, [-77.85%], [-76.64%], [-54.30% 84.79%], [-59.25%], The largest contribution to the uncertainty over the emission of NOXP2.5 in two regions are light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles. For the urban scale inventory of motor vehicle emissions, in 2012, 192334.59 tons of motor vehicle COOVOCU NOXX PM2.5 were emitted from Foshan City, respectively, 34588.51 tons or 38527.33 tons or 1403.01 tons. The largest source of COCOC VOC is motorcycle and light passenger car, Nox and PM2.5 are heavy vehicles and buses; in the contribution of emission standards, Guo0 and GuoI are the main sources of pollution; and the main roads and branches in Foshan City are the important sources of COTOC NOXX PM2.5 emissions. Highway is the main source of NOX and PM2.5; The two peak periods of motor vehicle exhaust emissions in Foshan city are 7: 00: 9: 00 and 17: 00: 19: 00; in the high resolution vehicle emission characteristics, CO and VOC emissions are mainly distributed in urban areas, national roads and highways. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty of vehicle emission inventory in Foshan City in 2012 is obtained. The uncertainty range of COVOC NOXX PM2.5 emission inventory is [-62.58%], [-58.08 + 63.85%], [-55.455,67.24%], [-56.1666.32%], respectively. Secondary and main roads.
【学位授予单位】：东北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X734.2

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