基于微波辐射计和风廓线资料建立AQI预报

发布时间：2018-05-04 14:20

  本文选题：微波辐射计 + 风廓线　； 参考：《环境科学与技术》2016年S2期

【摘要】：利用气象部门的常规和非常规(微波辐射计和风廓线)气象观测、环境监测中心站提供的空气质量监测,研究了空气质量指数(AQI)与气象要素的关系,在此基础上用多元线性逐步回归方法建立了AQI的统计模型,并结合气象预报的客观数值产品与主观订正产品,进行了苏州AQI预报。结果表明,常规和非常规气象要素与AQI有显著的相关性,其中微波辐射计和风廓线探测的大气垂直方向上的相对湿度、水平和垂直风速、上下层温差、以及物理量指数(A、I指数)与AQI显著负相关;建立的模型预报结果与AQI实况之间具有显著的正相关关系,模型预报在一定程度上改善了48 h主观预报效果,具有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:The relationship between air quality index (AQI) and meteorological elements is studied by using conventional and unconventional meteorological observations (microwave radiometers and wind profiles) in meteorological departments and air quality monitoring provided by environmental monitoring center stations. On this basis, the statistical model of AQI is established by using multivariate linear stepwise regression method, and combined with objective numerical products and subjective correction products of meteorological forecast, the Suzhou AQI forecast is carried out. The results show that there is a significant correlation between conventional and unconventional meteorological elements and AQI, in which the relative humidity, horizontal and vertical wind speed, and temperature difference between the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere detected by microwave radiometer and wind profile are significant. There is a significant positive correlation between the predicted results of the model and the actual AQI, and the model prediction improves the effect of 48 h subjective forecast to a certain extent and has a certain reference significance.
【作者单位】： 苏州市气象局;中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所;江苏省气候中心;
【基金】：中国国家自然科学基金(Y411391001) 江苏省气象科研基金(KM201408,Q201617) 北极阁基金(BJG201402) 苏州市气象局自立科研课题项目(sz201301)
【分类号】：X51
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本文编号：1843292