技术引进与技术创新对我国碳排放峰值的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 11:50

本文选题：技术引进 + 技术创新　；参考：《技术经济与管理研究》2016年09期

【摘要】：我国既是第二大经济体,又是全球第一大碳排放国。作为负责任大国,我国政府承诺2030年左右碳排放达到峰值。2030年左右能否达到峰值,人均碳排放量又是多少?通过什么方法可以减少人均碳排放量?文章基于1999-2012年中国省际面板数据,通过将技术引进、技术创新和能源结构引入二氧化碳的库兹涅茨曲线方程,构建我国二氧化碳排放的面板计量模型研究上述问题。研究结果表明:我国人均CO2排放与人均GDP之间存在库兹涅茨曲线的倒“U”型关系,对应的拐点处的人均GDP数值为95415.85元;煤炭消费量对CO2排放具有正的显著影响作用,2020年后煤消费量下降有利于碳排放减少;技术引进和技术创新可以降低碳排放水平,且技术创新对碳排放的有效作用在一定程度上要大于技术引进的作用。
[Abstract]:China is the second largest economy and the largest carbon emitter in the world. As a responsible big country, our government has committed to the peak carbon emissions around 2030. Can we reach the peak around 2030, and how much carbon emissions per capita? How can per capita carbon emissions be reduced? Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2012, this paper studies the above problems by introducing technology, technological innovation and energy structure into the Kuznets curve equation of carbon dioxide, and constructing the panel measurement model of carbon dioxide emissions in China. The results show that there is an inverted "U" type relationship between the per capita CO2 emission and GDP in China, and the corresponding GDP value at the inflection point is 95415.85 yuan. Coal consumption has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions. After 2020, coal consumption decreases in favor of carbon emissions, technology introduction and technological innovation can reduce carbon emissions, And the effective effect of technological innovation on carbon emissions is to some extent greater than that of technology introduction.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;华北电力大学经济与管理学院;
【分类号】：F426

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