水资源环境与经济增长:EKC假说在中国八大流域的表现

发布时间：2018-05-06 20:05

本文选题：环境库兹涅茨曲线 + 经济增长　；参考：《经济管理》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文旨在分析中国河流水质状况与经济增长之间的平衡关系。利用中国2004—2013年中国八大流域主要监测断面水文数据,结合各流域80个城市的经济发展和产业特征等数据,依照环境库兹涅茨曲线的经典和扩展分析框架,本文拟合了中国总体和各流域的EKC形态,并分析了未来各城市水资源质量的变化趋势。研究发现:(1)经典EKC曲线的性态并不适用于中国的水资源质量变化,中国的河流呈现出双拐点的S型EKC曲线特征;(2)八大流域的EKC曲线形状呈异质性,长江流域和太湖流域呈U型,海河流域和黄河流域呈现出典型的S型,淮河流域和辽河流域呈现出弱S型;(3)除了经济增长外,产业特征、能源使用情况都会影响流域水体的质量,同时影响EKC曲线的特征;(4)绝大部分城市仍然处于EKC曲线的第一或第二阶段,说明了经济增长和水资源保护之间关系较为紧张。这就意味着某些地区需要通过有效政策打破既有的增长路径,以谋求经济和环境的和谐发展。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to analyze the balance between water quality and economic growth in Chinese rivers. Based on the hydrological data of the main monitoring sections of the eight major watersheds in China from 2004 to 2013, combined with the data of economic development and industrial characteristics of 80 cities in each watershed, according to the classical and extended analytical framework of the environmental Kuznets curve, In this paper, the EKC patterns of China as a whole and each river basin are fitted, and the changing trend of water resources quality in each city in the future is analyzed. It is found that the characteristic of the classical EKC curve is not suitable for the variation of water resources quality in China, and that the rivers in China show a double inflection point S-shaped EKC curve. (2) the shape of the EKC curve of the eight major watersheds is heterogeneity, while the shape of the EKC curve of the Yangtze River basin and the Taihu River basin is U-shaped. The Haihe River Basin and the Yellow River Basin show typical S-type, while the Huaihe River Basin and the Liaohe River Basin show a weak S-type S-1) besides economic growth, industrial characteristics and energy use will affect the water quality of the basin. At the same time, most cities are still in the first or second stage of the EKC curve, indicating that the relationship between economic growth and water resources protection is relatively tight. This means that some regions need to break the existing growth path through effective policies in order to achieve harmonious economic and environmental development.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院;
【基金】：广东省社会科学重大项目“珠江流域跨省区水资源有偿使用和生态补偿制度研究”(2013ZGXM0002) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“中国工业企业出口行为:多维测度与机制识别”(14YJA790036) 国家社会科学重大项目“我国经济发展新常态下的货币政策创新问题研究”(15ZDA014)
【分类号】：X52;F127

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