中国区域可持续发展水平空间差异与趋势预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 21:35

本文选题：区域可持续发展 + 主成分分析　；参考：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文研究中国区域可持续发展水平问题,重点考察其空间差异和发展趋势,立足大区域视野,从文献梳理、方法选取、体系构建和定性定量评价分析层层推进,基本解决了以下几个问题:第一,重新构建了中国区域可持续发展评价体系。在大量已有研究的基础上,本文结合新时期“五位一体”建设思想,从经济、人口、社会、科教、生态和文化六个维度重新架构了中国区域可持续发展评价体系。该评价体系从多个领域反映了可持续发展的时代内涵特征,具有极强的现实指导意义。第二,从定性和定量两个视角评价中国区域可持续发展水平的空间差异。在利用主成分分析法测算中国七大区域可持续发展水平得分的基础上,利用ArcGis软件对区域可持续发展的空间差异进行了定性评价和归类,运用统计学方法对这种区域差异做出了定量的研判。定性分析表明,绝对意义上的中国区域可持续发展综合水平差异较小,但动态上的等级差异明显;区域可持续发展子系统空间分异格局特殊性较强,且随时间有显著的动态变化。定量研究显示,中国区域可持续发展综合水平空间差异较小,一些子系统空间差异较大,区域可持续发展水平空间差异在当前及今后一段时期内有扩大的风险。第三,分析七大区域可持续发展水平的时间演变趋势并进行预测。本文直接以各区域可持续发展水平得分为对象,通过数据拟合得到预测方程的方式对今后一定时期中国区域可持续发展水平进行了预测。预测结果表明,未来中国区域可持续发展趋势遵循二次曲线演变的规律,但各区域可持续发展水平差异可能进一步扩大。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the level of regional sustainable development in China, focusing on its spatial differences and development trends, based on a large regional perspective, combing the literature, selecting methods, building the system, and qualitative and quantitative evaluation and analysis layer by layer. The following problems have been basically solved: first, the evaluation system of regional sustainable development in China has been re-established. On the basis of a large number of previous studies, this paper reconstructs the evaluation system of China's regional sustainable development from the six dimensions of economy, population, society, science and education, ecology and culture, combined with the idea of "five-in-one" construction in the new period. The evaluation system reflects the connotation of sustainable development from many fields and has a strong practical significance. Secondly, the spatial difference of regional sustainable development level in China is evaluated from qualitative and quantitative perspectives. On the basis of using principal component analysis method to estimate the scores of sustainable development level of seven regions in China, the spatial differences of regional sustainable development are evaluated and classified qualitatively by using ArcGis software. A quantitative study of this regional difference was made using statistical methods. The qualitative analysis shows that the comprehensive level of regional sustainable development in China is relatively small in absolute sense, but the dynamic grade difference is obvious, and the spatial differentiation pattern of regional sustainable development subsystem is special. And there are significant dynamic changes with time. The quantitative research shows that the spatial difference of regional sustainable development level is small and some subsystems are different greatly. The spatial difference of regional sustainable development level has the risk of expansion in the present and future period. Third, analyze and forecast the time evolution trend of sustainable development level in seven regions. Taking the scores of regional sustainable development level as the object, this paper forecasts the regional sustainable development level of China in a certain period in the future by fitting the data to obtain the prediction equation. The prediction results show that the trend of regional sustainable development in China follows the law of conic evolution in the future, but the difference of regional sustainable development level may be further expanded.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F127;X22

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