子系统视角下中国经济活动中的碳排放流向追踪

发布时间：2018-06-05 20:01

本文选题：子系统 + 经济活动　；参考：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球生产分工演变为产品内生产工序和环节的分工,这对处于不同生产环节的国家碳排放产生不同影响。中国以加工贸易的形式,积极参与到全球生产分工体系中,成为全球第一大出口国和第二大进口国,亦被国际能源署评定为全球最大的温室气体排放国。制定有效的节能减排政策,不仅是应对国际气候谈判的需要,也是实现经济低碳转型的需要。从国内和国际两个维度,兼顾一国经济活动碳排放的消费侧与生产侧,识别由各国最终需求导致的碳排放国别流向,把握国内产业间的碳排放关联,制定具体到产业层面的国内减排产业政策和落实到各贸易伙伴国最终需求层面的贸易政策,将具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文借助多国区域间投入产出模型详细的国别信息优势,构造能反映碳排放国别流向、兼顾生产侧和消费侧的中国2009年经济活动中碳排放的子系统,将我国经济活动中的碳排放分解为内部效应、出口效应和进口效应。结果显示：第一,我国碳排放的内部效应大于出口效应大于进口效应。消费侧碳排放小于生产侧。第二,中国处于全球产业链低端,主要承担加工组装等末端工序,出口直接消费项、出口再加工项和进口再加工项大；本国产品的全球产业链较短,对第三国的经济辐射作用弱,出口复进口项和他国转进出口项均极小。第三,中国与七个贸易伙伴经济体的碳排放关系可以分为三类：欧美等大规模发达经济体的出口效应最大而进口效应较小；世界其他国家和地区、其他东亚国家和地区和其他新兴国家和地区的进口效应最大、出口效应也较大；澳大利亚和加拿大的进、出口效应都极小。然后,针对无论从消费侧还是生产侧我国碳排放内部效应中完全内部项的巨大份额,本文采用剔除了进口品相应效应的2009年中国非竞争型投入产出模型,基于增加值、节能减排等反映绿色产业经济的指标改进传统产业关联系数,进行国内产业间的绿色关联测度。改进后的关联系数显示,我国高排放部门主要集中在第二产业中的重化工业。兼顾经济效益与环境效益,筛选出的十大备选主导产业为以农林牧渔业、房地产业、邮政与电信业、金融业等为主的第一产业和生产性服务业。最后,在总结全文的基础上,提出了在全球分工视角下的中国碳减排建议。
[Abstract]:The global division of production has evolved into the division of production processes and links within products, which has different effects on the carbon emissions of countries in different production links. In the form of processing trade, China takes an active part in the global production division system and becomes the world's largest exporter and the second largest importer. It is also rated by the International Energy Agency as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter. To formulate effective energy saving and emission reduction policies is not only the need of international climate negotiations, but also the need to achieve a low-carbon economic transition. From the domestic and international dimensions, taking into account the consumption side and production side of a country's economic carbon emissions, identify the country flow of carbon emissions caused by the final demand of each country, and grasp the carbon emission correlation between domestic industries. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to formulate the domestic emission reduction industrial policy and to implement the trade policy at the final demand level of each trading partner. Based on the country information advantages of the multi-country inter-regional input-output model, this paper constructs a sub-system of carbon emissions in China's 2009 economic activities, which can reflect the flow of carbon emissions in different countries and take into account both the production and consumption sides of China's economic activities in 2009. Carbon emissions in China's economic activities are decomposed into internal effects, export effects and import effects. The results show that: first, the internal effect of China's carbon emissions is greater than the export effect than the import effect. Carbon emissions on the consumer side are smaller than those on the production side. Second, China is at the low end of the global industrial chain, mainly undertaking terminal processes such as processing and assembly, exporting direct consumption items, exporting reprocessing items and import reprocessing items; and the global industrial chain of domestic products is relatively short. The effect of economic radiation on third countries is weak, and the import and export items of export reimport and export transfer from other countries are very small. Third, China's carbon emissions relationship with seven trading partner economies can be divided into three categories: the largest export effects and the smaller import effects in large developed economies such as the United States and the United States; and other countries and regions in the world. Other East Asian countries and regions and other emerging countries and regions have the largest import effect and export effect, while Australia and Canada have very small import and export effects. Then, in view of the huge share of the internal effects of carbon emissions from the consumption side and the production side in China, this paper adopts the 2009 non-competitive input-output model, which excludes the corresponding effects of imports, based on added value. The indexes reflecting green industry economy, such as energy saving and emission reduction, improve the traditional industrial correlation coefficient and measure the green correlation among domestic industries. The improved correlation coefficient shows that the heavy chemical industry in the secondary industry is the main source of high emission in China. Taking into account the economic and environmental benefits, the top ten selected leading industries are agriculture, forestry, herding and fishery, real estate, postal and telecommunications, finance and other primary industries and producer services. Finally, on the basis of summing up the whole paper, the paper puts forward some suggestions on carbon emission reduction in China from the perspective of global division of labor.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F124;X196

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