延吉市生态安全评价与预警研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 23:45

本文选题：生态安全 + 评价　；参考：《延边大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济快速发展的今天,生态安全已成为与人类休戚与共的一个重要问题。基于可持续生存与发展的需要,系统地介绍延吉市生态安全的现状,客观合理的评价延吉市生态安全状况,探究生态安全问题产生的原因以及对生态安全的发展趋势进行预测,对于制定生态调控方案,构建生态安全格局,以生态环境的可持续为前提实施可持续发展战略等都具有重要的理论和实践意义。延吉市地理位置的特殊性和重要性决定了其独特的地位,然而作为支撑延吉市发展的生态环境已受到旅游业发展和交通设施的修筑等人类活动的影响,遭到一定程度的破坏,导致生态环境结构发生一定程度的变化。综合以上考虑,基于S-PRD概念模型,利用灰色关联分析对延吉市生态安全进行评价及预警研究。首先,评价指标体系构建。在S-PRD概念模型之上,以水、大气、土地、生物子系统为基础,依据评价指标筛选原则,建立生态安全评价指标体系。其次,生态安全评价。通过构造UNES分要素指数,分析和评价生态安全动态演变特征。利用灰关联矩阵分析方法对生态安全进行回顾性评价,探究影响2006-2013年生态安全的关键要素。构建灰敏感度评价模型开展回顾性灰敏感评价,寻找影响2006-2013年生态安全的关键指标。最后,生态安全预警。利用GM(1,1)模型预测2014-2018年评价指标值并进行精度检验,剔除不合格指标,然后基于2006-2018年的指标数据进行UNES分要素动态演变趋势分析与评价。构建发展度评价模型及其信号灯预警区间,开展发展度动态评价,实现对生态不安全的发展快慢预警。通过对UNES分要素灰关联和指标灰敏感预测评价,对影响UNES的主要要素与主要指标实现预警。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, ecological security has become an important issue of solidarity with mankind. Based on the need of sustainable survival and development, this paper systematically introduces the present situation of ecological security in Yanji city, evaluates the ecological security situation of Yanji City objectively and reasonably, probes into the causes of ecological security problems and forecasts the development trend of ecological security. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to formulate ecological control scheme, to construct ecological security pattern and to implement sustainable development strategy on the premise of sustainable ecological environment. The particularity and importance of Yanji's geographical location determine its unique status. However, the ecological environment, which supports the development of Yanji, has been affected by human activities, such as tourism development and transportation facilities construction, and has been destroyed to a certain extent. The ecological environment structure changes to a certain extent. Based on the S-PRD concept model, the ecological security of Yanji city is evaluated and studied by grey relational analysis. First of all, the construction of evaluation index system. On the basis of S-PRD conceptual model, based on water, atmosphere, land and biological subsystem, the ecological security evaluation index system was established according to the principle of evaluation index screening. Secondly, ecological security evaluation. The dynamic evolution characteristics of ecological security were analyzed and evaluated by constructing UNES sub-factor index. This paper makes a retrospective evaluation of ecological security by using the method of grey correlation matrix, and probes into the key factors that affect ecological security from 2006 to 2013. The grey sensitivity evaluation model was constructed to carry out retrospective grey sensitivity evaluation and to find the key indicators affecting ecological security from 2006 to 2013. Finally, ecological security warning. The evaluation index value of 2014-2018 is forecasted by GMQ1 / 1) model, and the accuracy test is carried out, and the unqualified index is eliminated, and then the dynamic evolution trend analysis and evaluation of UNES sub-elements are carried out based on the index data from 2006 to 2018. The evaluation model of development degree and the warning interval of signal lamp are constructed, and the dynamic evaluation of development degree is carried out to realize the development speed and slow warning of ecological insecurity. Based on the grey correlation of the sub-elements and the grey sensitivity prediction of the indicators, the main factors and main indicators affecting the UNES can be forewarned.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X826

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