兰州市空气质量健康指数的构建

发布时间：2018-06-28 07:08

本文选题：大气污染物 + 呼吸系统疾病　；参考：《兰州大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：空气污染已成为社会各界和公众广泛关注的主要环境问题之一,为了让公众能够更加直观地理解发布的空气污染信息,并能真正指导居民的健康出行,构建能真实反映空气质量及其与健康效应密切相关的空气综合评价指数,具有重要的现实意义。为此,本研究收集2001-2009年兰州市逐日的大气污染、气象因素及呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病日入院人数,进行相关分析和主成分分析,并进一步利用时间序列分析方法的半参数广义相加模型(GAM)建立大气污染与不同疾病不同人群(全人群、性别和年龄别)的健康暴露反应关系,参考加拿大构建空气污染健康指数(AQHI)的方法构建兰州市不同疾病不同人群的AQHI,取得一些有价值的研究成果。(1)大气污染与不同疾病不同人群的相关分析和主成分分析,结果表明呼吸系统疾病除16-64y人群外,其余人群均受S02影响最大且均为正效应,16-64y人群受PM10最大负效应影响；NO2对所有人群的影响均为负效应。心脑血管疾病所有层次人群均受PM1o影响最大,其次为S02,且均为负效应。(2)大气污染与人群健康暴露反应关系研究表明,大气污染对不同疾病不同人群的影响均具有一定的滞后效应。对呼吸系统疾病,S02和N02滞后0-7d、PM10滞后2-6d对不同人群的影响较大,污染物每增加1个四分位间距(IQR),人群日入院人数分别增加5.4%～8.0%、3.0%～6.6%和1.0%～3.7%；对心脑血管疾病,S02滞后1-7d、N02滞后0-5d以及PMlo滞后1-6d对不同人群影响较大,相对危险度(RR)分别为0.972～1.012、0.977～1.020和1.005～1.014,且不具统计学意义。(3)根据构建呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病不同人群逐日AQHI进行分级,结果表明,不同人群AQHI处于低度风险、中度风险、高度风险和重度风险级别的天数分别占总天数的比例为82.5%-84.9%、13.0%-15.1%、2.1%～2.4%和0%；不同人群AQHI-xn处于低度风险、中度风险、高度风险和重度风险级别的天数分别占总天数的比例为81.9%-99.5%、0.4%-10.8%、0.1%-2.5%和0%。(4)对AQHI、AQI和API三种指数对居民健康预测能力的研究表明,指数每上升1个IQR,不同人群患呼吸系统疾病入院的人数分别增加2.1%-31.0%、0.0%-0.1%和0.0%～0.1%；不同人群患心脑血管疾病入院的人数分别增加2.1%-14.7%、0.0%～0.1%和0.0%～0.1%,说明AQHI预测居民健康的能力较AQI和API强,且对呼吸系统疾病的影响较心脑血管疾病更强。综上所述,兰州市大气污染对人群健康的影响具有一定的滞后效应,研究期间不同疾病不同人群AQHI处于低度风险级别的比例较高,与AQI和API相比,AQHI能更加全面的反映空气质量并指导公众健康出行。
[Abstract]:Air pollution has become one of the major environmental problems that the community and the public have paid close attention to. In order to make the public understand the air pollution information more intuitively and guide residents to travel healthily, It is of great practical significance to construct an air comprehensive evaluation index which can truly reflect air quality and is closely related to health effects. Therefore, this study collected daily air pollution, meteorological factors, respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Lanzhou from 2001 to 2009, and carried out correlation analysis and principal component analysis. Furthermore, the semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) of time series analysis was used to establish the relationship between air pollution and the health exposure response of different populations with different diseases (whole population, sex and age). According to the method of constructing air pollution health index (AQHI) in Canada, the AQHII of different populations with different diseases in Lanzhou City was constructed, and some valuable research results were obtained. (1) correlation analysis and principal component analysis between air pollution and different populations of different diseases, The results showed that the respiratory diseases were most affected by S02 in all the population except 16-64y and were all positive effects. The effects of no _ 2 on all the population were all negative. All levels of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were most affected by PM1o, followed by S02, and were all negative effects. (2) the relationship between air pollution and human health exposure response was studied. Air pollution has a lag effect on different diseases and different population. For respiratory diseases, S02 and N02 delayed 0-7 days and PM10 delayed 2-6 days for different population groups. For each increase of 1 quartile spacing (IQR) of pollutants, the number of admission per day increased by 5.48.0% and 3.0% and 1.0% and 3.7%, respectively. For cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, the lag of S02 and PMlo were 0-5 days and 1-6 days, respectively. The relative risk (RR) was 0.9721,9077,1.020 and 1.005 / 1.014, respectively, and there was no statistical significance. (3) according to the different populations of respiratory diseases and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, AQHI was classified on a daily basis. The results showed that different populations were at low risk of AQHI. The proportion of days of moderate risk, high risk and severe risk to the total number of days is 82.5-84.9, respectively. The number of days in the middle risk, high risk and severe risk level is 13.0-15.12.41% and 0.The AQHI-xn of different people is at low risk, moderate risk, The proportion of days of high risk and severe risk to the total number of days was 81.9 -99.5%, 0.4-10.8% and 0.1% -2.5% and 0%, respectively. (4) the study on the ability of AQHIHIAQI and API to predict residents' health showed that For each increase of IQR, the number of patients with respiratory diseases in different population groups increased by 2.1% -31.0% and 0.0-0.1% and 0.00.1%, respectively. The number of patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in different population increased by 2.1% -14.70.The results showed that AQHI was stronger than AQI and API in predicting residents' health, and the influence on respiratory diseases was stronger than that on cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. To sum up, the effects of air pollution on population health in Lanzhou City have a certain lag effect. During the study period, the proportion of AQHI in different diseases and different population groups was higher than that in the low risk level. Compared with AQI and API, AQHI can reflect air quality more comprehensively and guide public healthy travel.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X51

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