中国低碳技术进步测度及对碳排放强度影响效应研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 14:18

【摘要】：文章借鉴全要素生产率估算方法,采用GEBML-DEA模型测定出1997—2012年中国30个省份低碳技术进步指数,分析发现低碳技术进步指数呈现东中西部递减趋势,技术创新是低碳技术进步增长的主要动力;2006年以后东中西部地区低碳技术进步指数呈全面较快上升趋势,而且中西部地区低碳技术进步增长较东部稍快,反映我国政府推进低碳经济发展战略效果显著。文章运用经济地理空间权重矩阵的空间面板计量模型研究发现:一是作为“技术效应”因素的低碳技术进步能有效地降低碳排放强度,且影响效应较大,验证了“低碳技术进步是有效降低碳排放强度途径”的命题,同时反映出“低碳技术进步是发展低碳经济的有效途径”。二是“规模效应”因素的经济发展对碳排放强度影响为负,效应较大。三是“结构效应”因素的第二产业比重对碳排放强度影响为正,效应较大。四是城镇化率的提高对碳排放强度影响为正,但影响较小。此外,碳排放强度存在较强的空间相关性,这说明碳排放强度降低受本地因素和相邻区域因素的共同影响。这说明邻近省市的先进低碳技术及管理等具有辐射和示范功能,促进相邻省市的碳排放强度的降低。
[Abstract]:Using the method of total factor productivity estimation, the paper uses GEBML-DEA model to determine the low carbon technology progress index of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2012. It is found that the low carbon technology progress index shows decreasing trend in East and West, and technological innovation is the main dynamic force of low carbon technology progress, and the low carbon technology in eastern and western regions after 2006. The step index shows a comprehensive and rapid rising trend, and the low carbon technology progress in the central and western regions is a little faster than that in the East, which reflects the significant effect of our government to promote the development of low carbon economy. The paper uses the spatial panel measurement model of the economic geographical space weight matrix to find that the first is the low carbon technology progress as a "technical effect" factor. It can effectively reduce the carbon emission intensity and influence the effect greatly. It proves that "low carbon technology progress is an effective way to reduce carbon emission intensity", and that "low carbon technology progress is an effective way to develop low carbon economy". Two is the economic development of "scale effect" factors that have negative impact on carbon emission intensity, and the effect is larger. Three the second industry proportion of the "structural effect" factor has a positive effect on the carbon emission intensity. The four is that the increase of urbanization rate has a positive effect on the carbon emission intensity, but the influence is smaller. In addition, there is a strong spatial correlation in the carbon emission intensity, which shows that the reduction of carbon emission intensity is common to the local factors and the adjacent regional factors. This indicates that the advanced low-carbon technologies and management in neighboring provinces and cities have radiation and demonstration functions to promote the reduction of carbon emission intensity in neighboring provinces and cities.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学;滁州学院;国家统计局统计科学研究所;
【分类号】：F124.5

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