行业减排的优先次序与差别对策研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 11:58

【摘要】：确定行业二氧化碳减排的优先次序并实施差别对策对减排目标的实现具有重要意义。本文基于投入产出Ghosh模型和敏感性分析,从结构减排、技术减排两个方面,提出了国家或区域行业二氧化碳减排优先次序确定的一般方法。将该方法应用到中国行业减排,采用2002年和2012年全国投入产出表和行业碳排放数据,依据各行业的经济增长贡献率、感应度系数、边际增长的完全碳排放量、二氧化碳排放强度年均下降率和二氧化碳排放强度-增加值弹性5个代表性指标,确定行业减排的优先次序,并提出差别的减排对策建议。结果表明:在考察的40个行业中,技术减排优先级I的行业包括非金属矿物制品业在内共18个,结构性减排优先级I的行业包括石油和天然气开采业在内共13个,针对行业技术减排和结构减排的三级优先次序,可以确定四类减排对策。应用研究一方面证明了本文设计的一般方法的实用性和科学性,另一方面为中国制定分行业的减排政策提供了参考。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to determine the priority of carbon dioxide emission reduction in industry and to implement differential countermeasures to achieve the emission reduction target. Based on the input-output Ghosh model and sensitivity analysis, this paper puts forward a general method to determine the priority of carbon dioxide emission reduction in national or regional industries from two aspects: structural emission reduction and technical emission reduction. The method is applied to China's industries to reduce emissions, using the 2002 and 2012 national input-output tables and industry carbon emissions data, according to the contribution rate of economic growth, sensitivity coefficient, marginal growth of total carbon emissions, The average annual reduction rate of carbon dioxide emission intensity and the elasticity of carbon dioxide emission intensity-value added are five representative indexes to determine the priority of industry emission reduction and to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for different emission reduction. The results show that among the 40 industries investigated, 18 industries include non-metallic mineral products, 13 industries with structural emission reduction priority I, including oil and gas extraction. According to the three-level priorities of industry technology emission reduction and structural emission reduction, four kinds of emission reduction countermeasures can be determined. On the one hand, the applied research proves the practicability and scientificalness of the general method designed in this paper, on the other hand, it provides a reference for China to formulate the emission reduction policy by industry.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71271074、71573069、71503065) 教育部人文社会科学基金(14YJC790061、14YJC630061)
【分类号】：X322

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