人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态稳定性研究

发布时间：2018-10-20 19:36

【摘要】：在人口与环境关系的理论框架下,定量分析人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态稳定性,对于理解中国的水环境变化趋势具有理论参考价值。本文利用中国官方统计数据和省级面板回归模型,通过构建时间交互项和斜率虚拟交互项,分离出人口规模与废污水排放量动态关系的固定效应和进度效应。研究发现,2003-2012年间,人口规模对废污水排放量具有显著性的正向固定效应,人口规模依然是水环境压力的重要因素之一;负向进度效应表明人口规模对废污水排放量的影响有下降趋势,人口数量因素的环境效应正在被人口结构因素所取代;动态分析表明进度效应有逐年下降的变化趋势,中国正进入人口规模与水环境动态稳定的窗口期。人口规模对废污水排放量的进度效应有逐年下降的变化趋势,相关政策应该考虑人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态变化。
[Abstract]:In the theoretical framework of the relationship between population and environment, the quantitative analysis of the dynamic stability of the relationship between population size and waste water discharge is of theoretical reference value for understanding the trend of water environment change in China. Based on the official statistics of China and the provincial panel regression model, the fixed and schedule effects of the dynamic relationship between population size and waste water discharge are separated by constructing the temporal interaction term and the slope virtual interaction term. It is found that the population size has a significant positive fixed effect on the waste water discharge from 2003 to 2012, and the population scale is still one of the important factors of water environment pressure. The negative progress effect indicates that the influence of population size on waste water discharge is decreasing, the environmental effect of population quantity factor is being replaced by population structure factor, and the dynamic analysis shows that the progress effect has a decreasing trend year by year. China is entering a window of population size and dynamic stability of the water environment. The effect of population size on the discharge of waste water is decreasing year by year, and the dynamic change of the relationship between population size and the discharge of waste water should be taken into account in the relevant policies.
【作者单位】：四川农业大学;广东医科大学;
【基金】：东莞市软科学研究项目(201550425200015)
【分类号】：X24

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