京津冀协同发展下民用汽车污染物减排研究

发布时间：2018-11-21 11:54

【摘要】：使用长期能源替代模型(LEAP),对2012-2030年京津冀民用汽车的燃油消耗和主要污染物排放进行预测分析。研究发现:在政策情景下,京津冀民用汽车的燃油消耗相对于基准情景降低21.2%,污染物CO、NOx、PM、HC的排放相对于基准情景分别降低63.2%、69.2%、51.7%、56.1%。新标准措施对燃油消耗的降低贡献率为71.5%,对污染物CO、NOx、PM、HC的减排贡献率分别是89.8%、93.8%、91.0%、89.9%。京津范围内的小客车"限购"措施对京津冀燃油消耗的降低贡献率为28.5%,对京津冀污染物CO、NOx、PM、HC的减排贡献率分别是10.2%、6.2%、9.0%、10.1%。政策情景中新标准措施的减排效果远远大于小客车"限购"措施的减排效果。
[Abstract]:A long-term energy substitution model (LEAP),) was used to predict fuel consumption and major pollutant emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei civil vehicles in 2012-2030. The study found that under the policy scenario, the fuel consumption of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei civilian vehicles was reduced by 21.2% compared with the baseline scenario, and the emission of pollutant CO,NOx,PM,HC was reduced by 63.2% 69.2% and 51.7%, respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. 56.1. The contribution rate of the new standard measures to fuel consumption is 71.5%, and the contribution rate to pollutant CO,NOx,PM,HC emission reduction is 89.8%, 93.88% and 91.0% respectively. The reduced contribution rate of the "limited purchase" measures to the fuel consumption of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is 28.5m, and the contribution rate to the CO,NOx,PM,HC emission reduction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei pollutants is 10.20.6.2and 9.0. 10.1. The emission reduction effect of the new standard measures in the policy scenario is far greater than that of the "limited purchase" measures.
【作者单位】：北京工业大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：北京市自然科学基金项目(9142001)
【分类号】：X734.2

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