甘肃省工业分行业碳排放影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-11-28 20:28

【摘要】：随着全球气候变暖和化石能源危机的加剧,如何有效控制温室气体排放已成为人类实现可持续发展所面临的严峻考验。传统的“先污染、后治理”的经济发展模式不利于实现可持续发展。“低碳经济”作为一种新的经济发展模式正逐步改变全球各个国家和地区生产生活方式和经济社会活动,并且得到许多国家的广泛认可。中国作为最大且发展最快的发展中国家,在快速的工业化和城镇化过程中,以化石能源消费为主的传统能源结构导致以CO2为主的温室气体的排放量也在不断增加。甘肃省作为传统工业经济占主导地位的工业大省,其在石油化工、煤炭开采和矿产资源开发等综合利用等产业方面的发展优势也导致改变高投入、高排放、高污染的传统工业化发展途径任重道远。在此背景下,研究甘肃省工业具体行业部门的碳排放影响因素具有重要的理论和实际意义,研究结论为甘肃省根据不同行业部门的碳排放影响因素特点制定科学合理的节能减排政策提供重要的参考和建议。本文首先介绍文章的研究目的和意义,整理总结关于碳排放研究的国内外研究现状,指出关于碳排放研究的主要方法；其次,介绍碳排放研究的相关理论,为研究提供理论基础；第三,利用碳排放测算方法,估算2004-2013年甘肃省工业碳排放水平并分析其变化趋势,根据碳排放水平将甘肃省37大行业部门分为三类；根据LMDI因素分解模型,将影响工业碳排放的主要因素分解为劳动生产率、产业结构、能耗强度和能源结构四大因素,并分别指出影响每个行业碳排放的主要因素；最后,采用面板数据模型,比较分析工业碳排放与劳动生产率和能耗强度之间量化关系。研究结果表明：甘肃省工业碳排放呈现不断增长趋势,从行业部门来看,主要集中于石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,电力、热力的生产和供应业以及黑色金属冶炼及延压加工业三大行业；劳动生产率提高在表明生产技术水平提高的同时,也一定程度上提高各行业部门的经济规模和能源消费总量的增加,进而提高碳排放总量。随着工业不断发展,对碳排放量的增加会持续起到正效应。产业结构变化对石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,化学纤维制造业和纺织业三大行业部门碳排放增长产生一定的抑制作用,对于石油化工行业部门来说,调整石油产业结构对于工业实现二氧化碳减排的效果更佳明显,因此对于石油化工等传统支柱产业,努力实现产业结构优化对实现工业碳减排有着至关重要的作用。对于高碳排放行业来说,环保技术水平的提高可以极大抑制生产技术水平提高即工业发展所导致的碳排放增长。因此,未来一段时间内,甘肃省在制定二氧化碳减排政策的过程当中,应着重致力于提高环保技术水平,大力发展循环经济,对于抑制工业碳排放的增长具有极其深远的意义。
[Abstract]:With the worsening of global climate warming and fossil energy crisis, how to effectively control greenhouse gas emissions has become a severe challenge for human to realize sustainable development. The traditional "pollution first, then governance" economic development model is not conducive to the realization of sustainable development. As a new mode of economic development, "low-carbon economy" is gradually changing the way of production and life and economic and social activities in all countries and regions of the world, and has been widely recognized by many countries. As the largest and fastest developing country in China, in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization, the traditional energy structure, which is dominated by fossil energy consumption, leads to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions based on CO2. Gansu Province, as a leading industrial province with traditional industrial economy, its development advantages in such industries as petrochemical industry, coal mining and mineral resources development also lead to changes in high investment and high emissions. The development of high pollution traditional industrialization has a long way to go. In this context, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions in specific industrial sectors in Gansu Province. The conclusions provide important references and suggestions for Gansu Province to formulate scientific and reasonable policies on energy saving and emission reduction according to the characteristics of carbon emission in different industries. This paper first introduces the purpose and significance of the research, summarizes the domestic and foreign research on carbon emissions, and points out the main methods of carbon emissions research; Secondly, it introduces the theory of carbon emission research, which provides the theoretical basis for the study. Thirdly, using the carbon emission measurement method, the paper estimates the industrial carbon emission level of Gansu Province from 2004 to 2013 and analyzes its changing trend. According to the carbon emission level, the 37 major industries in Gansu Province are divided into three categories. According to the LMDI factor decomposition model, the main factors affecting industrial carbon emissions are divided into four major factors: labor productivity, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity and energy structure, and the main factors affecting carbon emissions in each industry are pointed out respectively. Finally, the panel data model is used to compare and analyze the quantitative relationship between industrial carbon emissions and labor productivity and energy intensity. The results show that industrial carbon emissions in Gansu Province are on the rise. From the perspective of the industrial sectors, they are mainly concentrated in petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, electricity, Thermal production and supply industry and ferrous metal smelting and pressing industry three major industries; The improvement of labor productivity not only indicates the improvement of production technology level, but also increases the economic scale and total energy consumption of various sectors to a certain extent, thus increasing the total amount of carbon emissions. With the continuous development of industry, the increase in carbon emissions will continue to play a positive effect. The changes in industrial structure have a certain restraining effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, chemical fiber manufacturing and textile industries. Adjusting the structure of petroleum industry is more effective for industry to achieve carbon dioxide emission reduction. Therefore, for the traditional pillar industries such as petrochemical industry, it is very important to realize the optimization of industrial structure for the realization of carbon emission reduction in industry. For high carbon emission industry, the improvement of environmental protection technology level can greatly restrain the increase of production technology level, that is, the increase of carbon emission caused by industrial development. Therefore, in the process of making the policy of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, Gansu Province should focus on improving the level of environmental protection technology and developing circular economy, which is of great significance to restrain the growth of industrial carbon emissions.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X322;F427

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