中国工业氮氧化物排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素分析
发布时间：2018-12-16 14:55
【摘要】：作为"十二五"期间新纳入控制性约束指标的污染物,NO_X排放量的研究成果可为地区减排份额的制定提供依据。本文运用ESDA(探索性空间方法)分析省域工业NO_X排放的时空分布特征,进而通过LMDI模型分解探究其主要驱动因素。结果显示:1工业NO_X的排放总量虽然呈现先增加后减少的态势,但至2013年也只完成减排份额的5.6%,相对2015年15%的减排目标还有一定距离,减排形势严峻;2省域工业NOx排放在空间上呈现集聚分布特征,高排放量集聚主要出现在河北、河南、山东、江苏等中东部地区,且随时间的推移有向外围省份扩张的趋势;3LMDI模型分解结果表明,经济发展是NOx增排的主要驱动力,生产技术进步和能源利用效率提升是减排的主要控制因素,产业结构调整的减排效应在2011年后开始凸显;4以四象限图及排放量为划分依据将各省份划分为3个大类,并从改进生产技术、提高能源利用效率、增加经济鼓励、削减排放份额等方面提出相应的减排建议。
[Abstract]:As a new pollutant in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the research results of NO_X emissions can provide the basis for the formulation of regional emission reduction share. In this paper, ESDA (exploratory space method) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of industrial NO_X emissions in provincial areas, and then the main driving factors are analyzed through the decomposition of LMDI model. The results showed that: (1) although the total emission of industrial NO_X increased first and then decreased, it only completed 5.6of the emission reduction share by 2013, which is still far away from the 15% emission reduction target in 2015, and the situation of emission reduction is grim; (2) the industrial NOx emissions in provincial areas show the characteristics of agglomeration and distribution in space. The high emission agglomeration mainly occurs in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other central and eastern regions, and tends to expand to the peripheral provinces with the passage of time; The decomposition results of 3LMDI model show that economic development is the main driving force of NOx emission increase, and the progress of production technology and the improvement of energy use efficiency are the main controlling factors of emission reduction, and the emission reduction effect of industrial structure adjustment began to prominent after 2011. 4 according to the four quadrant chart and the emission quantity, the provinces are divided into three categories, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the production technology, improving the energy use efficiency, increasing the economic encouragement, reducing the emission share and so on.
【作者单位】： 中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院;中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学青年基金项目(41401181) 湖北省自然科学基金项目(2013CFB010)
【分类号】：X701;X322
，
本文编号：2382537
[Abstract]:As a new pollutant in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the research results of NO_X emissions can provide the basis for the formulation of regional emission reduction share. In this paper, ESDA (exploratory space method) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of industrial NO_X emissions in provincial areas, and then the main driving factors are analyzed through the decomposition of LMDI model. The results showed that: (1) although the total emission of industrial NO_X increased first and then decreased, it only completed 5.6of the emission reduction share by 2013, which is still far away from the 15% emission reduction target in 2015, and the situation of emission reduction is grim; (2) the industrial NOx emissions in provincial areas show the characteristics of agglomeration and distribution in space. The high emission agglomeration mainly occurs in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other central and eastern regions, and tends to expand to the peripheral provinces with the passage of time; The decomposition results of 3LMDI model show that economic development is the main driving force of NOx emission increase, and the progress of production technology and the improvement of energy use efficiency are the main controlling factors of emission reduction, and the emission reduction effect of industrial structure adjustment began to prominent after 2011. 4 according to the four quadrant chart and the emission quantity, the provinces are divided into three categories, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the production technology, improving the energy use efficiency, increasing the economic encouragement, reducing the emission share and so on.
【作者单位】： 中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院;中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学青年基金项目(41401181) 湖北省自然科学基金项目(2013CFB010)
【分类号】：X701;X322
，
本文编号：2382537
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