1995-2012年我国西北地区家庭碳排放及影响因素分析

发布时间：2019-05-27 03:00

【摘要】：全球变暖已成为当前人类面临的严重环境问题。目前国际社会已经普遍认为人类活动产生的温室气体特别是C02是导致全球变暖的主要原因。随着经济社会的发展、城市化进程的加快以及人民生活水平的提高,居民家庭生活碳排放量不断增加。相关研究表明,居民家庭和个人消费行为的改变,有助于减少碳排放,促使碳排放结构更加合理,家庭生活领域有巨大的减排潜力。分析碳排放影响因素,通过限制某个或某些因素,可以有效减少碳排放。本文利用国家统计数据,评估了1995-2012年西北地区(陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆)家庭碳排放的基本状况,基于STIRPAT模型的扩展模型,结合岭回归拟合,对西北地区家庭碳排放的影响因素进行了实证研究。本文主要做了以下几个方面的工作：(1)评估1995-2012年西北地区家庭生活碳排放的基本状况。从家庭碳排放总量、人均家庭碳排放量、直接间接碳排放量、家庭碳排放结构等角度入手对西北地区整体及五省之间的生活碳排放进行了分析。结果显示：西北地区家庭碳排放总量在1995-2012年间增加了2.82倍,人均家庭碳排放量增加了2.36倍；西北五省之间家庭碳排放总量的差距始终较大,但人均家庭碳排放的差距却逐渐减小；间接碳排放在排放总量中所占比重持续上升,人均间接碳排放已远高于人均直接碳排放；家庭碳排放重点从煤炭排放转移为电力和食品排放。(2)基于STIRPAT模型的扩展模型,对1995-2012年西北地区家庭碳排放的影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明,1995-2012年西北地区家庭碳排放的各影响因素按其影响程度从大到小依次为：人均GDP(20.26%)、家庭碳排放强度(17.38%)、人均消费支出(11.51%)、城镇化率(10.75%)、家庭规模(-10.18%)、劳动年龄人口比重(9.61%)、大专以上文化程度人口比重(9.43%)、人口总量(5.36%)。其中,家庭规模对家庭碳排放的影响是负向的。(3)基于STIRPAT模型的扩展模型,对1995-2012年陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆各省家庭碳排放的影响因素进行了分析。结果发现,人均GDP(20.62%)、家庭碳排放强度(17.35%)、人均消费支出(12.23%)是影响陕西家庭碳排放的主要因素；人均GDP(18.22%)、家庭规模(-15.13%)、家庭碳排放强度(14.9%)是影响甘肃家庭碳排放的主要因素；家庭碳排放强度(18.47%)、城镇化率(14.86%)、人均消费支出(12.83%)是影响青海家庭碳排放的主要因素；人均GDP(17.06%)、人均消费支出(12.92%)、劳动年龄人口比重(12.55%)是影响宁夏家庭碳排放的主要因素；家庭碳排放强度(28.25%)、人均GDP(16.63%)、人均消费支出(14.37%)是影响新疆家庭碳排放的主要因素。
[Abstract]:Global warming has become a serious environmental problem faced by human beings. At present, the international community has generally believed that greenhouse gases, especially CO2, are the main causes of global warming. With the development of economy and society, the acceleration of urbanization and the improvement of people's living standards, the carbon emissions from household life are increasing. Relevant studies have shown that the change of household and personal consumption behavior is helpful to reduce carbon emissions, promote a more reasonable structure of carbon emissions, and has great potential to reduce emissions in the field of household life. By analyzing the influencing factors of carbon emissions, carbon emissions can be effectively reduced by limiting one or some factors. Based on the national statistical data, this paper evaluates the basic situation of household carbon emissions in Northwest China from 1995 to 2012 (Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang). Based on the extended model of STIRPAT model, combined with ridge regression fitting, This paper makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of household carbon emissions in Northwest China. The main work of this paper is as follows: (1) to evaluate the basic situation of carbon emissions from household life in Northwest China from 1995 to 2012. From the point of view of total household carbon emissions, per capita household carbon emissions, direct and indirect carbon emissions, household carbon emission structure and so on, this paper analyzes the domestic carbon emissions in Northwest China as a whole and among the five provinces. The results show that the total household carbon emissions in Northwest China increased by 2.82 times in 1995 / 2012, and the per capita household carbon emissions increased by 2.36 times. The gap of total household carbon emissions between the five provinces of Northwest China is always large, but the gap of per capita household carbon emissions is gradually decreasing. The proportion of indirect carbon emissions in the total emissions continues to rise, and the per capita indirect carbon emissions are much higher than the per capita direct carbon emissions. The focus of household carbon emissions from coal emissions to electricity and food emissions. (2) based on the extended model of STIRPAT model, this paper makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of household carbon emissions in Northwest China from 1995 to 2012. The results showed that the influencing factors of household carbon emissions in Northwest China from 1995 to 2012 were as follows: per capita GDP (20.26%), household carbon emission intensity (17.38%), per capita consumption expenditure (11.51%). Urbanization rate (10.75%), family size (- 10.18%), proportion of working-age population (9.61%), proportion of population with higher educational level (9.43%), total population (5.36%). Among them, the influence of household size on household carbon emissions is negative. (3) based on the extended model of STIRPAT model, the influencing factors of household carbon emissions in Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang provinces from 1995 to 2012 are analyzed. The results showed that per capita GDP (20.62%), household carbon emission intensity (17.35%) and per capita consumption expenditure (12.23%) were the main factors affecting household carbon emissions in Shaanxi. Per capita GDP (18.22%), household size (- 15.13%) and household carbon emission intensity (14.9%) were the main factors affecting household carbon emissions in Gansu Province. The intensity of household carbon emissions (18.47%), urbanization rate (14.86%) and per capita consumption expenditure (12.83%) are the main factors affecting household carbon emissions in Qinghai. Per capita GDP (17.06%), per capita consumption expenditure (12.92%) and proportion of working-age population (12.55%) were the main factors affecting household carbon emissions in Ningxia. Household carbon emission intensity (28.25%), per capita GDP (16.63%) and per capita consumption expenditure (14.37%) are the main factors affecting household carbon emissions in Xinjiang.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X321

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