危化品基地安全预警评价模型构建研究与应用

发布时间：2018-08-09 09:53

【摘要】：危化品基地作为危化品储存、转运的重要场所,一旦发生事故,将会给人员、财产和环境带来巨大灾难。天津港“812”危化品爆炸事故造成的人员和财产损失令人触目惊心。为了保障危化品基地的安全运行,减少事故的发生,有必要对危化品基地整体安全预警水平进行研究,建立危化品基地安全预警评价模型,从而提高危化品基地对事故的应急响应能力。本文在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,依据安全预警的相关理论和技术,并结合现场调研情况,对危化品基地安全影响因素进行了筛选和分析,构建了危化品基地安全影响因素ISM模型,得出了影响危化品基地安全的底层根本因素、中间层间接因素和表层直接因素。在此基础上,构建了危化品基地安全预警指标体系,包括4个一级指标和20个二级指标。利用AHP法确定了各指标的权重。然后,设定了危化品基地的安全预警警级和警限。最后,在安全预警指标体系的基础上,运用多级模糊综合评价法建立了危化品基地安全预警评价模型,并以浙江省舟山市某危化品基地为例,对构建的危化品基地安全预警评价模型进行了应用,得出该危化品基地总体安全运行状态良好,符合实际情况。验证了本文建立的危化品基地安全预警评价模型有较好的应用效果。同时也针对局部安全隐患提出了相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:As an important place for dangerous chemicals storage and transportation, hazardous chemicals base will bring great disaster to personnel, property and environment once accidents occur. Tianjin Port "812" dangerous chemicals explosion caused by the loss of personnel and property is shocking. In order to ensure the safe operation of dangerous chemicals base and reduce the occurrence of accidents, it is necessary to study the whole safety early warning level of dangerous chemical base, and establish the safety early warning evaluation model of dangerous chemical base. In order to improve the emergency response capacity of hazardous chemicals base to the accident. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, based on the relevant theory and technology of safety early warning, combined with the field investigation, this paper screened and analyzed the factors affecting the safety of hazardous chemicals base. The ISM model of the influencing factors on the safety of hazardous chemicals base was constructed, and the underlying basic factors, the indirect factors of the intermediate layer and the direct factors of the surface layer were obtained. On this basis, the index system of safety early warning for dangerous chemicals base is constructed, which includes 4 first class indexes and 20 second grade indexes. The weight of each index is determined by AHP method. Then, set the dangerous chemicals base security warning level and warning limit. Finally, on the basis of the index system of safety early warning, the model of safety early warning evaluation of dangerous chemicals base is established by using multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and a dangerous chemicals base in Zhoushan City of Zhejiang Province is taken as an example. The safety early warning evaluation model of dangerous chemicals base is applied, and it is concluded that the overall safe operation state of the dangerous chemical base is good, which is in line with the actual situation. It is verified that the model established in this paper has good application effect. At the same time, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the local security hidden trouble.
【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TQ086.52

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