蒙西煤制天然气管道风险评价

发布时间：2018-11-08 08:03

【摘要】：近年来,油气管道的高危事故不断发生,造成了严重的影响。油气管道风险评价技术显得越发重要。管道系统的风险管理,也被视为管道运输行业的重中之重。随着当下我国天然气需求的的递增以及非常规天然气的快速替代,传统单一的管道风险评价思想与方法对现阶段多元化油气运输已经不再适应。因此,完善和强化管道风险评价也将成为急需待解决的事情。油气管道风险评价技术是管道完整性管理中的核心内容。对管道开展风险评价工作可以全面了解管道所处运行状况,识别管道危险因素,得到管道的风险管段,为进一步制定风险减缓措施以及管道完整性评价提供理论基础。本文通过定量与定性分析,结合蒙西煤制天然气管道的实际特点进行了风险评价,为保证其安全运行提供理论依据。首先,本文介绍了研究的背景和意义,以及国内外的发展现状,并总结了国内外油气管道运输事故管理的经验和不足。其次,本文将着重介绍了管道风险评价的一般方法,总体分为定性分析和半定量分析和定量分析并分析了他们各自的特点、适用性以及相关公式的推导。经过研究,文章采用了肯特(KENT)分析法来评价,为了不失客观性,在肯特分析法的基础上建立了模糊层次分析模型,并调整了风险因素的权重,使管道风险评价更加准确。再次,先对各地区管道先进行了单元的划分,在每一个管线上建立了评价指标,并展开对每一条管线进行了分析评价,权衡每一条影响因素,并将整个数据进行了归纳综合分析。最后,在本次管道风险评价中,确定了评价指标,得出了具有建设性意义的理论观点,通过运用DNV公司SAFETI软件对事故后果进行了模拟评价,基于计算机的模拟仿真结果,如埋地管道后果模拟情况,站场管线事故后果模拟情况,对本次项目的风险评价添加更真实的效果。为实现蒙西线长输气管道的安全运行,以及提高科学高效的风险评价作出有力的保障。
[Abstract]:In recent years, high-risk accidents of oil and gas pipelines have occurred continuously, resulting in serious impact. Oil and gas pipeline risk assessment technology is becoming more and more important. The risk management of pipeline system is also regarded as the most important part of pipeline transportation industry. With the increasing demand for natural gas and the rapid replacement of unconventional natural gas, the traditional single pipeline risk assessment idea and method is no longer suitable for diversified oil and gas transportation. Therefore, perfecting and strengthening pipeline risk evaluation will also become a matter of urgent need to be solved. Oil and gas pipeline risk assessment technology is the core of pipeline integrity management. The risk assessment of pipeline can comprehensively understand the running condition of pipeline, identify the dangerous factors of pipeline, obtain the risk section of pipeline, and provide a theoretical basis for further risk mitigation measures and pipeline integrity evaluation. Based on the quantitative and qualitative analysis, the risk assessment of the Mengxi coal gas pipeline is carried out in order to provide a theoretical basis for the safe operation of the pipeline. First of all, this paper introduces the background and significance of the research, as well as the development situation at home and abroad, and summarizes the domestic and foreign oil and gas pipeline transportation accident management experience and shortcomings. Secondly, this paper mainly introduces the general methods of pipeline risk assessment, which can be divided into qualitative analysis, semi-quantitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and their respective characteristics, applicability and derivation of relevant formulas are analyzed. Through research, the paper adopts Kent (KENT) analysis method to evaluate. In order to keep objectivity, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model is established on the basis of Kent analysis method, and the weight of risk factors is adjusted to make pipeline risk evaluation more accurate. Thirdly, every regional pipeline is divided into units, the evaluation index is established on each pipeline, and the analysis and evaluation of each pipeline are carried out, and each influencing factor is weighed. The whole data is analyzed synthetically. Finally, in the pipeline risk evaluation, the evaluation index is determined, and a constructive theoretical point of view is obtained. Through the use of SAFETI software of DNV to simulate and evaluate the consequences of the accident, the simulation results based on computer are given. If the buried pipeline consequence simulation situation, the station pipeline accident consequence simulation situation, to this project risk evaluation adds the real effect. In order to realize the safe operation of the Mengxi long gas pipeline and to improve the scientific and efficient risk evaluation, this paper makes a strong guarantee.
【学位授予单位】：东北石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TQ055.81;TQ53

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