平行交通系统的可信度评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 13:21

本文关键词：平行交通系统的可信度评估方法研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：在平行交通系统中,可信度是指人工交通系统和实际交通系统的一致性程度。可信度评估对平行交通系统的开发和应用具有重要意义。只有保证平行交通系统具有足够可信度,最终得到的结果才具有实际应用的价值和意义。但是目前,平行交通系统领域内关于可信度的研究还寥寥无几。在此背景之下,本文在平行系统的ACP方法体系(人工系统、计算实验、平行执行)的理论基础上,提出了一种基于区间二型模糊逻辑的平行交通系统可信度评估方法。这种评估方法以区间二型模糊逻辑建立的预测模型为基础,结合平行交通系统的计算实验,组成了整个评估模型,并实现了对平行交通系统的可信度评估。本文的研究工作主要为以下几方面：介绍了平行交通系统的思想、所包含的内容以及其结构体系；阐述了可信度和可信度评估方法；提出并确定了平行交通系统中可信度的概念及研究方法。建立了基于区间二型模糊集合的评估模型。本文的评估模型是一种“预测加比较”的体系结构,其以实际系统的预测模型为基础和关键环节,利用二型模糊逻辑的相关理论建立了实际系统的预测模型,然后根据预测模型产生的预测区间和计算实验所得数据相比较,成功建立了平行交通的可信度评估模型。将评估模型应用到公交车乘客平均候车时间的计算实验中。本文对平行交通系统中平均候车时间这一关键问题进行了计算实验,通过多次实验得到了不同的实验结果,利用实际系统的预测区间对实验结果进行了误差分析,并尝试利用误差反馈来调节人工交通系统内部参数。仿真结果表明,基于区间二型模糊集合的评估模型在平行系统的可信度评估工作中是适用的,并取得了一定的成果。同时,正确适当的调节系统内部参数可减小平行系统的输出误差,从一定程度上实现了误差反馈调节功能。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: in parallel traffic systems. Credibility refers to the degree of consistency between artificial traffic system and actual traffic system. Reliability evaluation is of great significance to the development and application of parallel traffic system. Only to ensure that parallel traffic system has sufficient credibility. The final results have practical value and significance. However, there are few researches on credibility in the field of parallel traffic system. This paper is based on the theory of ACP method system (manual system, computational experiment, parallel execution) of parallel system. A reliability evaluation method for parallel traffic systems based on interval 2 fuzzy logic is proposed. The evaluation method is based on the prediction model established by interval 2 fuzzy logic and combined with parallel traffic system calculation experiments. The whole evaluation model is formed, and the reliability evaluation of parallel traffic system is realized. The main work of this paper is as follows: This paper introduces the idea of parallel traffic system, its contents and its structure system, expounds the reliability and reliability evaluation methods, and puts forward and determines the concept and research method of reliability in parallel traffic system. An evaluation model based on interval type 2 fuzzy set is established. The evaluation model in this paper is a "prediction plus comparison" architecture, which is based on the prediction model of the actual system and the key link. The prediction model of the actual system is established by using the theory of type 2 fuzzy logic, and then the prediction interval generated by the prediction model is compared with the data obtained from the calculation experiment. The reliability evaluation model of parallel traffic is established successfully. The evaluation model is applied to the calculation experiment of the average waiting time of bus passengers. In this paper, the key problem of the average waiting time in parallel traffic system is calculated. Different experimental results are obtained through several experiments. The error analysis of the experimental results is carried out by using the prediction interval of the actual system, and the error feedback is used to adjust the internal parameters of the artificial traffic system. The simulation results show that the evaluation model based on interval type 2 fuzzy sets is applicable to the reliability evaluation of parallel systems and has achieved certain results. The output error of the parallel system can be reduced by adjusting the internal parameters of the system correctly and properly, and the error feedback regulation function is realized to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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