基于复杂系统理论的煤炭码头通过能力影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 00:08

本文关键词：基于复杂系统理论的煤炭码头通过能力影响因素研究　出处：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤炭码头物流系统是一个复杂的动态系统，有许多不确定因素影响着其效能的发挥，其影响机理既是一个工程问题，也是一个学术难题。本文以复杂系统科学为导引，较为系统地剖析了输出型煤炭码头物流系统的复杂性；基于排队网络理论，建立了码头物流系统稳态数学模型，分析了相关影响因素及其对稳态的作用机理；运用系统仿真技术，完成了复杂因素与码头通过能力的仿真模型的搭建，定量研究了复杂因素与码头生产效能的关系，取得了显著的成果： (1)运用现代复杂系统科学理论，提出了煤炭码头物流系统静态复杂性和动态复杂性的概念，分析了码头物流系统的复杂因素；在深入研究码头通过能力理论计算方法的基础上，归纳了影响码头物流系统生产效能的关键因素。 (2)基于排队网络理论，揭示了输出型煤炭码头物流系统兼有Jackson和Fork-Join排队网络双重特性，建立了码头物流系统的稳态模型；借助敏感性分析方法，探索了相关因素对稳态性能指标的敏感度；研究发现稳态时，船舶或火车的排队长度和等待时间对相关因素的变化最敏感。 (3)运用面向对象建模思想，对煤炭码头物流系统进行面向对象分析，确定了系统的对象类；结合某大型码头实际运营状况，借助系统仿真技术，首次在Simio仿真试验平台上建立了面向复杂因素的煤炭码头物流系统的仿真模型，并与实际数据对比，验证了模型的可行性和适用性。 (4)针对已建的仿真模型，就火车（船舶）到达间隔、堆存策略、设备数量和技术参数等部分复杂因素设计了仿真试验，并对仿真数据结果进行了敏感性分析，，定量研究了复杂因素与码头生产效能的关系；首次绘制了相关因素与码头通过能力的因果关系图，揭示了复杂因素的动态作用机理。本文的研究成果直接面向工程实际，有利于系统瓶颈的挖掘，为码头的规划设计以及生产运营管理提供理论依据和决策支持，具有一定的学术和工程应用价值。
[Abstract]:The logistics system of coal wharf is a complex dynamic system, there are many uncertain factors affecting its effectiveness, and its mechanism is an engineering problem. It is also an academic problem. This paper, guided by complex system science, systematically analyzes the complexity of the output coal wharf logistics system. Based on the queuing network theory, the steady state mathematical model of terminal logistics system is established, and the related influencing factors and its action mechanism on steady state are analyzed. By using system simulation technology, the simulation model of complex factors and wharf passing capacity is built, and the relationship between complex factors and wharf productivity is studied quantitatively, and remarkable results are obtained. 1) using the modern complex system science theory, this paper puts forward the concepts of static complexity and dynamic complexity of the logistics system of coal wharf, and analyzes the complex factors of the logistics system of the wharf. On the basis of deeply studying the theoretical calculation method of wharf capacity, the key factors affecting the production efficiency of wharf logistics system are summarized. 2) based on the queuing network theory, this paper reveals that the output-type coal wharf logistics system has the dual characteristics of Jackson and Fork-Join queuing network, and establishes the steady state model of the terminal logistics system. By means of sensitivity analysis, the sensitivity of relevant factors to steady-state performance index is explored. It is found that the queue length and waiting time of ship or train are most sensitive to the change of relative factors in steady state. 3) by using the idea of object-oriented modeling, the object-oriented analysis of the logistics system of coal wharf is carried out, and the object class of the system is determined. According to the actual operation of a large wharf and with the help of system simulation technology, the simulation model of coal wharf logistics system for complex factors is established on the Simio simulation test platform for the first time. Compared with the actual data, the feasibility and applicability of the model are verified. 4) aiming at the established simulation model, the simulation tests are designed for some complicated factors, such as the arrival interval of train (ship), the stacking strategy, the quantity of equipment and the technical parameters, etc. The sensitivity of the simulation data is analyzed, and the relationship between the complex factors and the production efficiency of the wharf is studied quantitatively. The causality diagram of the correlation factors and the passing capacity of the wharf is drawn for the first time, and the dynamic mechanism of the complex factors is revealed. The research results of this paper are directly oriented to engineering practice, which is conducive to the excavation of system bottlenecks, and provides theoretical basis and decision support for the planning and design of wharves and production and operation management. It has certain academic and engineering application value.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U691

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