高速公路交通安全风险评价与敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 12:39

  本文关键词：高速公路交通安全风险评价与敏感性分析　出处：《长安大学学报(自然科学版)》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 交通工程 交通安全 ATR法 正交试验法 风险评价 敏感性分析 高速公路

【摘要】：为预防并减少交通事故发生,将"事后惩治"转变为"事前预防",构建了包括转向性能、交通条件等16个影响因素的高速公路交通安全风险评价指标体系,提出了AHP-TOPSIS-RSR法的高速公路交通安全风险评价方法,该方法基于系统分析及嫁接的思想,利用AHP法建立评价矩阵,通过引入熵权的TOPSIS法计算出交通安全风险综合评价指标值与理想值相对接近度值,结合RSR法,根据风险等级的分档标准,对相对接近度值进行分档。基于正交试验法提出高速公路交通安全敏感性分析模型,并计算各因素敏感度值,根据其排序确定主要敏感风险指标,并以福建永武(永安-武平)高速公路为例对该方法进行验证。研究结果表明:永武高速公路交通安全风险等级为Ⅰ级-巨警,风险等级高;疲劳/无证驾驶、车辆超速、线形条件、交通条件、不良天气、救援机制的风险指标敏感度分别达到:0.472 1、0.508 8、0.759 8、0.814 2、0.529 6、0.468 5,属于安全敏感风险指标,基本反映了永武高速公路的交通安全实际状况。
[Abstract]:In order to prevent and reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents, the "punishment after the event" was transformed into "prevention beforehand", and the evaluation index system of highway traffic safety risk including steering performance, traffic conditions and other 16 influencing factors was constructed. This paper presents an evaluation method of expressway traffic safety risk based on AHP-TOPSIS-RSR method. Based on the idea of systematic analysis and grafting, the evaluation matrix is established by using AHP method. Through the introduction of entropy weight TOPSIS method to calculate the traffic safety risk comprehensive evaluation index value and ideal value relative proximity value, combined with the RSR method, according to the risk classification standard. Based on orthogonal test, the sensitivity analysis model of expressway traffic safety is put forward, and the sensitivity value of each factor is calculated, and the main sensitive risk index is determined according to its ranking. Taking Yongwu (Yongan-Wuping) expressway in Fujian as an example, this method is verified. The results show that the traffic safety risk level of Yongwu Expressway is Grade 鈪，

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