河北省某城市交通可持续发展综合评价

发布时间：2018-01-21 18:16

本文关键词： 城市交通可持续发展评价熵权未确知测度置信度识别准则　出处：《河北工程大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的快速发展，城市交通拥堵现象愈加严重、城市环境质量日趋恶化、自然资源日益紧缺，这些问题严重影响着城市经济、社会、环境的可持续发展。交通系统是城市社会经济系统中的一个重要分支，其可持续发展是城市实现可持续性发展的基本保障。只有与城市社会经济、环境及资源协调发展，城市交通系统的可持续性发展战略才会实现。城市交通系统可持续发展综合评价是衡量城市交通系统可持续发展程度的重要措施。通过对城市交通系统进行综合评价及分析，才能全面了解城市交通系统与城市经济、社会、环境及资源是否协调发展，进而指导决策者改善城市交通发展环境，保证城市交通系统可持续发展。本论文根据未确知测度理论，建立城市交通可持续发展综合评价模型。在综合考虑影响城市交通发展因素的基础上，从城市经济发展、交通需求、环境质量及资源消耗4个方面进行评价指标的选取，提出城市交通发展的评价指标体系。针对影响城市交通发展的不同影响因素，利用熵权系数法计算各不同影响因素的指标权重，并根据实际情况，分别对其进行定性、定量分析。再按照置信度识别准则进行等级划分，，根据得分情况对近6年的河北省某城市交通发展水平进行排序比较，最后得出城市交通系统发展的综合评价结果。将该方法应用于某城市的交通发展评价中，试验结果表明，基于未确知测度的评价模型可以合理、有效地对城市交通发展水平进行综合性评价。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's social economy, the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious, the quality of urban environment is deteriorating day by day, and the natural resources are increasingly scarce. These problems seriously affect the urban economy and society. Sustainable development of environment. Traffic system is an important branch of urban social economic system. Its sustainable development is the basic guarantee of sustainable development of city. Only with urban social economy. Coordinated development of environment and resources. The sustainable development strategy of urban transportation system can only be realized. The comprehensive evaluation of sustainable development of urban transportation system is an important measure to measure the degree of sustainable development of urban transportation system. Evaluation and analysis. In order to fully understand whether the urban transportation system and urban economy, society, environment and resources develop harmoniously, and then guide the decision-makers to improve the urban traffic development environment and ensure the sustainable development of urban transportation system. Based on the theory of unascertained measure, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of urban traffic sustainable development. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the factors affecting urban traffic development, the urban economic development and traffic demand are considered. Four aspects of environmental quality and resource consumption are selected, and the evaluation index system of urban traffic development is put forward, aiming at the different influencing factors of urban traffic development. Entropy weight coefficient method is used to calculate the index weight of different influencing factors, and according to the actual situation, it is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, and then classified according to the confidence recognition criterion. According to the score of a city in Hebei Province in recent 6 years of traffic development level of ranking comparison, finally, the comprehensive evaluation of urban traffic system development results, the application of this method in a certain city traffic development evaluation. The experimental results show that the evaluation model based on unascertained measure is reasonable and effective for comprehensive evaluation of urban traffic development level.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12

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