高速公路车辆排队尾部交通事故时空分布特征

发布时间：2018-01-23 22:15

本文关键词： 交通安全高速公路交通事故排队尾部时空分布　出处：《交通运输工程学报》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：根据高速公路常发拥堵路段的交通流数据,采用累计占有率法绘制交通流占有率波动曲线,用来判断拥堵路段内车辆排队尾部轨迹,分析了占有率、里程位置、时间间隔的关系,确定了累计占有率曲线的拐点。分析了排队传播、消散过程中交通事故频数与时间、空间距离的关系,对分布特征进行了统计分析。分析结果表明:车辆在时间和空间上接近排队车辆尾部时,发生交通事故的频数明显增加,时间距离与空间距离以排队尾部为中心呈现正态分布,不同行驶方向路段内正态分布曲线不存在显著差异,但拥堵传播与消散过程的正态分布曲线存在显著差异。建立的事故发生概率的联合正态分布模型,可用于预测排队车辆尾部附近的交通事故风险,为实施动态交通控制以提高快速道路交通安全提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:According to the traffic flow data of freeway road congestion, the cumulative share method to draw traffic flow occupancy curve to determine the queue tail trajectory of congested road vehicles, analyzes the relationship between share, mileage position, time interval, the cumulative share of inflexion curve. Analysis of line spread, traffic accident frequency time and dissipation process, spatial distance relation, the distribution characteristics were analyzed. Analysis results show that the vehicle queuing vehicle in time and space approach, frequency of traffic accidents increased significantly, time and space distances to the tail as the center line showed a normal distribution, the different sections are driving direction the normal distribution curve does not exist significant differences, but there are significant differences between the normal distribution curve of Congestion Propagation and dissipation process. Combined with the normal establishment of accident probability The distribution model can be used to predict the risk of traffic accidents near the rear part of the queued vehicle, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the implementation of dynamic traffic control in order to improve the safety of expressway traffic.

【作者单位】：东南大学城市智能交通江苏省重点实验室;东南大学现代城市交通技术江苏高校协同创新中心;西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院;
【基金】：国家973计划项目(2012CB725400) 国家863计划项目(2012AA112304) 国家自然科学基金项目(51008074)
【分类号】：U491.3
【正文快照】： 与事故数据,采用累计占有率曲线法判断高速公路1^ 车辆排队尾部位置[m3],针对拥堵向上游传播与向高速公路上存在若干交通瓶颈,瓶颈附近交通下游消散2类情况,分析了每起事故与排队尾部的拥堵时常发生,车辆排队状态向上游路段蔓延,交通空间距离与时间距离,建立了排队尾部附近

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