常规公交与城市轨道交通并线决策问题研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 06:54

本文关键词： 并线决策 OD分类 MNL模型客流转移　出处：《西南交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的加快和新型城镇化建设战略的提出,交通基础设施在我国经济社会发展的征程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。越来越多的城市将交通问题放在了提升城市形象、发展城市经济的首位。在“公交优先战略”的引导下,城市轨道交通建设成为当代城市交通发展的一个主要内容。然而,轨道网络建设不能一蹴而就,需要经过漫长的时期。目前,我国大部分城市处于轨道建设初期,轨道线网形成尚缺气候,而绝大多数城市在开通首期轨道交通线路时,对原有的公交路线结构调整经验不足。特别是城市中仅存在单条轨道的时候,其配套服务水平低导致其吸引范围有限,吸引强度欠佳。此时人们容易高估其“公交骨干”的作用而遵循“平行减弱,垂直加强”的公交调整定则,放弃与之并线的常规公交线路,以至于在轨道交通开通之后造成居民出行不便。目前,常规公交规划部门对于地铁新线开通后,并线的常规公交的调整决策是采取“社会实验”法,即地铁新线开通,保留常规公交持续开通一段时间,观察其客流变化,来决定常规公交的去留。这样的做法容易导致社会资源的浪费和城市交通结构反复地变化,造成整个交通系统秩序混乱。因此,需要研究科学合理的方法,在地铁开通前积极预测并线走廊的客流变化,制定并线公交的调整方案,以期地铁开通后,客流能达到平稳过渡。本文基于个人出行调查,确定影响并线通道内方式选择的主要因素；利用非集计模型科学、合理地分析地铁新线开通后,公共交通客流从并线常规公交转移到轨道交通的规律,判断未来公共交通运输结构,并以此作出正确的规划和决策。最后对影响并线问题的主要原因做出灵敏度分析,确定影响因素的影响程度以供决策者判断。将该方法运用到成都地铁1号线和常规公交16路的案例中,预测成都地铁1号线新线开通之后16路车的转移率,收集16路车在地铁开通前后运营资料,与计算结果进行对比,验证方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's urbanization process and the proposed new urbanization construction strategy. Transportation infrastructure plays a more and more important role in the journey of economic and social development in China. More and more cities put traffic problems in the promotion of the image of the city. Under the guidance of "bus priority strategy", urban rail transit construction has become a main content of contemporary urban transportation development. However, rail network construction can not be accomplished overnight. It needs a long period. At present, most cities in our country are in the initial stage of track construction, the rail network is still lack of climate, and most cities are opening the first phase of rail transit lines. The adjustment of the original bus route structure is inexperienced. Especially when there is only a single track in the city, its low level of supporting services leads to its limited scope of attraction. At this time, people tend to overestimate the role of "bus backbone" and follow the "parallel weakening, vertical strengthening" bus adjustment rules, and give up with the conventional bus lines. So that after the opening of rail transit caused inconvenience to residents. At present, after the opening of the new subway line, the adjustment decision of the routine transit line of the routine transit planning department is to adopt the "social experiment" method, that is, to open the new subway line for a period of time. Observe the change of passenger flow to determine the regular bus. Such a practice can lead to the waste of social resources and the repeated changes of urban traffic structure, resulting in the chaos of the whole traffic system. It is necessary to study scientific and reasonable methods to actively predict the passenger flow changes in the corridor before the subway is opened and to formulate the adjustment scheme of the parallel line public transport so as to ensure the smooth transition of the passenger flow after the opening of the subway. Based on the personal travel survey, this paper determines the main factors that affect the choice of mode in the parallel channel. By using the science of disaggregate model, this paper reasonably analyzes the law of public transport passenger flow transferring from conventional public transportation to rail transit after the new subway line is opened, and judges the future public transport structure. Finally, sensitivity analysis is made to determine the influence degree of the influencing factors for decision makers. The method is applied to the cases of Chengdu Metro Line 1 and bus Line 16, and the transfer rate of the 16 bus after the opening of the new line of Chengdu Metro Line 1 is predicted, and the operation data of the 16 bus before and after the opening of the subway are collected. Compared with the calculated results, the feasibility of the method is verified.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12

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