考虑三维线形的双车道公路运行车速预测模型

发布时间：2018-01-29 18:51

本文关键词： 双车道公路运行车速三维线形综合指标影响范围回归拟合预测模型　出处：《安徽理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：双车道公路是我国最普遍的公路形式,其安全形势十分严峻。汽车在双车道公路行驶的安全性主要体现在汽车的运行车速上,它是交通系统中各要素影响驾驶行为的一种表现形式。本文以理论与实验相结合的方法研究影响双车道公路运行车速的三维线形指标描述模型,从而得出运行车速预测模型。本文采用断面观测法,分别测得ZH点、HY点、YH点与HZ点四个特征点断面的车速。通过分析,得出各特征点断面上的第85百分位的瞬时速度,为该特征点断面的运行车速。根据双车道公路的线形特性,综合考虑平、纵、横三维线形对驾驶员车速决策行为的影响,分别对影响平面线形的半径、曲率变化率、转角,影响纵断面线形的纵坡度,影响横断面线形的车道宽度与侧向净空宽度进行分析与研究,得出各单项线形描述模型。以平面线形为主、纵断面、横断面线形为辅,得出线形综合指标描述模型。通过线形综合指标描述模型对影响各单项线形指标的变量的相关性分析,得出各变量对线形综合指标描述模型的敏感性。最后根据实验所测得的运行车速,理论分析得出的三维线形综合指标描述模型,并引入线形影响距离的的应用,分析双车道公路的运行车速预测模型。
[Abstract]:Two-lane highway is the most common form of highway in China, and its safety situation is very serious. The safety of the vehicle driving on the two-lane highway is mainly reflected in the running speed of the vehicle. It is a form of expression of factors affecting driving behavior in the traffic system. In this paper, the three-dimensional linear index model which affects the speed of two-lane highway is studied by combining theory and experiment. Thus, the operating speed prediction model is obtained. In this paper, the speed of the four characteristic points of ZH and HZ are measured by using the method of section observation. The instantaneous velocity of 85th percentile on each characteristic point is obtained by analysis. For the running speed of the section of the feature point. According to the linear characteristics of two-lane highway, the influence of horizontal, longitudinal and horizontal three-dimensional alignment on driver's speed decision-making behavior is considered synthetically, and the radius, curvature change rate and rotation angle of plane alignment are respectively affected. This paper analyzes and studies the longitudinal slope of the profile, the lane width and the lateral clearance width of the cross section line, and obtains the description model of each individual line shape, which is mainly plane line and vertical section. The linear comprehensive index description model is obtained, and the correlation analysis of the variables that affect each single linear index is carried out by the linear composite index description model. The sensitivity of each variable to the linear synthetic index description model is obtained. Finally, according to the operating speed measured by the experiment, the three-dimensional linear comprehensive index description model is obtained by theoretical analysis, and the application of linear influence distance is introduced to analyze the speed prediction model of two-lane highway.
【学位授予单位】：安徽理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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