基于突变理论的应急物流通道可靠性评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 07:12

本文关键词： 应急物流物流通道应急物流通道可靠性突变理论　出处：《重庆交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年，我国各种自然灾害多发，气象灾害、地质灾害、海洋灾害、水文灾害等每年都给国家和人民的生命财产带来巨大损失。加强灾害的预警和防范是各国各政府的职责，属于事前控制，非常重要。但同时当灾害不可避免地发生后，及时的灾害救助就显得尤为重要。由于应急条件下，救援物资的运输调度具有突发性和不可预知性、时效性、弱经济性、非常规性等特征，因此应急物流成为研究热点之一。应急物流通道是应急物流系统的重要组成部分，而且是应急物流有效运作的物质基础。应急物流通道的可靠性是衡量应急救援反应能力的一个重要指标。本文以应急物流通道可靠性的选择与评价为研究对象，在阐述国内外研究现状的基础上，首先对应急物流及物流通道的概念、分类进行了论述，并在此基础上总结了应急物流通道的概念。此外，从概念、机理、特征、应用方面介绍了突变理论。然后，，从应急物流通道构成角度，分析影响应急物流通道可靠性因素，根据科学性与可操作性、代表性与独立性、持续性与动态性、定性及定量、通用性与发展性、全面性与可比性相结合的原则，构建了应急物流通道可靠性的评价指标体系，该指标体系主要由应急物流通道技术、应急物流通道设施、应急物流通道环境和应急物流通道管理四个维度组成。此外，还分析表明了各个指标的筛选和量化方法。在比较专家定性判断法、综合评分法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法、数据包络法等方法后，建立了基于突变评价法的评价模型。最后，通过案例分析验证了应急物流通道可靠性的评价指标体系及评价模型与方法的可行性和有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the occurrence of various kinds of natural disasters in China, meteorological disasters, geological disasters, marine disasters, hydrological disasters and so on have brought huge losses to the lives and property of the country and the people every year. It is the responsibility of the governments of all countries to strengthen the early warning and prevention of disasters. It is very important to control in advance, but at the same time, the timely disaster relief is especially important when the disaster inevitably occurs. Because of the emergency condition, the dispatch of the relief material is unexpected, unpredictable and timely. Because of its weak economy and unconventional characteristics, emergency logistics has become one of the research hotspots. Emergency logistics channel is an important part of emergency logistics system. The reliability of emergency logistics channel is an important index to measure the ability of emergency rescue response. This paper takes the reliability selection and evaluation of emergency logistics channel as the research object. On the basis of expounding the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper first discusses the concept and classification of emergency logistics and logistics channel. On this basis, the concept of emergency logistics channel is summarized. In addition, the catastrophe theory is introduced from the aspects of concept, mechanism, characteristics and application. Then, from the point of view of emergency logistics channel composition, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the reliability of emergency logistics channel, according to the scientific and operational, representativeness and independence, persistence and dynamic, qualitative and quantitative, generality and development. Combining the principle of comprehensiveness and comparability, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of emergency logistics channel reliability, which is mainly composed of emergency logistics channel technology, emergency logistics corridor facilities, The emergency logistics channel environment and the emergency logistics channel management are composed of four dimensions. In addition, the selection and quantification methods of each index are also analyzed. After comparing the methods of expert qualitative judgment, comprehensive scoring, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and data envelopment, an evaluation model based on catastrophe evaluation is established. The feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation index system, evaluation model and method of emergency logistics channel reliability are verified by case analysis.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U116

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