基于TransCAD的交通影响评价中交通需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 18:54

本文关键词： 交通影响评价 TransCAD 四阶段法交通需求预测　出处：《新疆农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着城市开发强度的不断提高，交通问题日益突出，已成为制约城市发展的一个重要因素。如何在当前道路交通环境与高强度土地开发利用情况下最大限度的满足交通需求，已经成为城市交通系统发展所面对的重要难题。为了协调城市开发中土地利用与城市交通系统的关系和评估城市各类项目建成后对交通系统的影响，因此许多城市引进交通影响评价工作机制，以减轻建设项目对城市交通系统的影响。在此背景下，针对城市建设项目交通影响评价工作中的交通需求预测进行研究。根据城市建设项目交通影响评价的特点，结合现有交通需求预测模型，以乌鲁木齐市交通影响评价项目为例，基于交通调查，研究适合在城市建设项目交通影响评价中使用TransCAD进行的交通需求预测的模型与方法。结合乌鲁木齐市交通影响评价项目，通过将人工预测结果与使用TransCAD所得预测结果及目标年现状交通量进行对比，探讨基于TransCAD实现交通需求预测的优势与不足。本文针对城市建设项目交通影响评价项目中使用TransCAD进行交通需求预测做了下述研究：（1）对项目区影响范围进行交通小区划分，利用TransCAD建立影响范围区路网图，通过TransCAD自带数据表对交通基础数据进行储存与使用。（2）利用现有交通需求预测模型，结合TransCAD软件中各类模型的使用，对交通影响评价项目的交通需求预测过程中使用“四阶段法”预测的模型原理及模型组合方案进行设计说明，并对相应参数进行标定。通过TransCAD实现交通影响评价项目的交通需求预测工作。（3）结合乌鲁木齐市实例，探讨利用TransCAD实现交通需求预测的方法，并将预测结果与通过人工计算所得预测结果进行对比分析，验证使用TransCAD的预测合理性，，减少人工预测在评价过程中的误差。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the intensity of urban development, traffic problems become increasingly prominent, which has become an important factor restricting urban development. How to meet the traffic demand to the maximum extent in the current road traffic environment and high-intensity land exploitation and utilization, In order to coordinate the relationship between land use and urban transport system in urban development and evaluate the impact of various urban projects on the transportation system, it has become an important problem for the development of urban transportation system. Therefore, many cities introduce traffic impact assessment (TIA) mechanism to reduce the impact of construction projects on urban traffic system. In this context, traffic demand prediction in urban construction project traffic impact assessment (TIA) is studied. According to the characteristics of urban construction project traffic impact assessment, combined with the existing traffic demand forecasting model, taking Urumqi traffic impact assessment project as an example, based on traffic survey, This paper studies the model and method of traffic demand forecasting which is suitable for traffic impact assessment of urban construction projects using TransCAD. Combined with Urumqi traffic impact assessment project, By comparing the result of artificial forecast with the result of using TransCAD and the current traffic volume in the target year, the advantages and disadvantages of realizing traffic demand forecasting based on TransCAD are discussed. In this paper, the traffic demand prediction using TransCAD in urban construction project traffic impact assessment project is studied as follows:. 1) divide the influence area of the project area into the traffic district, use TransCAD to build the road map of the influence area, and store and use the basic traffic data through the TransCAD data table. 2) using the existing traffic demand forecasting model and the use of all kinds of models in TransCAD software, the model principle and model combination scheme of using "four-stage method" in the traffic demand forecasting process of traffic impact assessment project are designed and explained. The corresponding parameters are calibrated and the traffic demand prediction of the traffic impact assessment project is realized by TransCAD. Combined with Urumqi city, this paper discusses the method of using TransCAD to realize traffic demand forecasting, and compares the forecast results with those obtained by manual calculation, and verifies the rationality of using TransCAD. To reduce the error of artificial prediction in the evaluation process.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【共引文献】