EPC模式下某海外工程承包商风险评价与控制

发布时间：2018-03-05 15:21

本文选题：海外EPC工程项目　切入点：承包商风险　出处：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海外EPC（设计Engineering、采购Procurement、施工Construction总承包模式的简称）工程通常为大型项目，不仅受到经济、政治、劳务、资金、采购、运输等原因的影响，而且与技术标准、法律法规、气候环境、社会文化等因素息息相关，因此决定了它的高风险性。由于我国承包商不习惯EPC模式，理解不透彻EPC合同、风险处理不当，导致某些海外EPC工程处于亏损状态。因此，怎样有效、全面、正确的对风险进行识别、评价与控制，是我国承包商关注的焦点。结合Z国M公路EPC项目，识别分析该项目总承包商的各类风险，按照风险评价理论，通过定性与定量方法对项目总承包商的风险展开系统的研究。主要研究内容包括：（1）将该项目承包商的风险从风险来源分为两大类：客观因素导致的风险、承包商自身局限因素导致的风险。对风险进行全面的识别分析。其中，客观因素导致的风险分为7类共20个风险事件，承包商自身局限因素导致的风险分为6类共19个风险事件，总计39个风险事件。（2）针对客观因素导致的风险事件相互独立的特点，采用改良了的专家打分法进行定性分析，结合风险严重性与可能性进行打分，确定风险等级。定量分析采用集值法进行损失分析、蒙特卡洛计算机模拟进行概率分析，计算出风险值与风险指数，确定风险大小并排序。（3）针对承包商自身局限导致的风险事件相互影响的特点，采用专家打分法与多层次分析法确定风险指标的权重。定量分析则引入灰色理论计算风险值，，确定风险大小，使评价结果更真实。（4）建立M公路项目承包商的风险预警系统，对风险值较高的风险因素实施监控，随时掌握风险状态，以减少风险的发生。以M公路项目承包商风险现状为依据，提出规避风险的建议，供承包商参考。研究结果可供EPC总承包商评估对外工程风险时参考，从而识别、评价、控制风险，将风险损失降到最低，从而成功的控制工程成本。
[Abstract]:Overseas EPCs are usually large-scale projects, influenced not only by economic, political, labor, capital, procurement, transportation and other reasons, but also by technical standards, laws and regulations, climate environment, etc. Social and cultural factors are closely related to each other, which determines its high risk. Because our contractors are not used to the EPC model, understand the EPC contract thoroughly, the risk is not handled properly, and some overseas EPC projects are in a state of loss. How to identify, evaluate and control risks effectively, comprehensively and correctly is the focus of our contractors. Combined with the M highway EPC project of Z country, this paper identifies and analyzes all kinds of risks of the general contractor of the project. According to the theory of risk evaluation, the risk of the general contractor of the project is studied systematically by qualitative and quantitative methods. The main research contents are as follows:. 1) the risk of the contractor of the project is divided into two categories from the source of risk: the risk caused by objective factors, the risk caused by the contractor's own limitations, and the comprehensive identification and analysis of the risk. The risk caused by objective factors can be divided into 7 types and 20 risk events, while the risk caused by the contractor's own limited factors can be divided into 6 categories and 19 risk events, with a total of 39 risk events. (2) in view of the independent characteristics of the risk events caused by objective factors, the improved expert scoring method is used to carry out qualitative analysis, and the risk severity and possibility are combined to score. The risk grade is determined. The loss analysis is carried out by means of set value method, and the probability is analyzed by Monte Carlo computer simulation. The risk value and risk index are calculated, and the risk magnitude is determined and sorted. 3) according to the characteristics of the interaction between the risk events caused by the contractor's own limitations, the weight of the risk index is determined by the expert scoring method and the multi-level analysis method, while the grey theory is introduced in the quantitative analysis to calculate the risk value and determine the risk magnitude. To make the evaluation more true. 4) establish the risk early warning system of the contractor of M highway project, monitor the risk factors with high risk value, grasp the risk state at any time, in order to reduce the occurrence of risk, take the risk situation of the contractor of M highway project as the basis, Propose risk aversion suggestions for contractor's reference. The results can be used as a reference for EPC general contractor to evaluate the external engineering risk, identify, evaluate and control the risk, reduce the risk loss to the minimum, and control the project cost successfully.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U415.1

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